Toti has only one safe card to remain president of Liguria, as he intends to do according to what transpires from his forced residence. He must obtain the revocation of house arrest from the magistrate or with an appeal to the Freedom Court. Even in that case, which the bookmakers consider unlikely but who knows if they are right, the situation could remain very difficult if the president obtains his freedom but is accompanied by a suspension. In any case, the possible revocation of the arrests would give him a very strong hand, to be added to the support of Fi and the League. Even yesterday Salvini shielded him by responding to the request for resignation reiterated by Conte: “In Italy you are innocent until proven guilty and if every suspect resigned the country would stop tomorrow.” However, the Northern League and blue shield will not be enough if the president has to remain segregated at home. FdI’s impatience is all too evident. The prime minister’s irritation is obvious and obvious.
If Toti is forced to fold, a waltz of nominations will open on the right for which everyone is already warming up their engines. We will vote in the autumn and consequently the combination with the vote in Umbria is in the order of things. However, the European elections will leave another regional presidency vacant, that of Emilia-Romagna following the certain election of Bonaccini. In the majority there are consequently those who already dream of a regional election day, adding Emilia to the other two regions. For now it is just a suggestion, which will have to deal with the electoral law of Emilia which does not impose immediate elections. In short, the council could be able to carry on until the natural deadline, in 2025.
FdI’s reactions to Toti’s arrest were immediately extremely eloquent. In a heated exchange, the regional coordinator Rosso stated that he “did not rule out resignations and new elections”, only to then have to go back once he realized the sensational gaffe. But in general the defense of Toti by the tricolors remained much less convinced than that of the other majority parties and there are few doubts about the prime minister’s intentions to try to win the Region, with a shortlist of names among whose petals the most eligible is precisely that of the coordinator Marco Rosso. Not even the League masks its ambition
to launch the attack on Liguria. A goal that however presents many contraindications. The outgoing president of Umbria Donatella Tesei is a member of the Northern League and a double regional test with two Northern League candidates in the field is hardly credible. Furthermore, the Northern League is an integral part of the power system built in Liguria by Toti, and this certainly does not support the idea of a Northern League candidacy. However, the League could propose a sort of exchange, sacrificing Tesei, considered a weak candidate, and would have some strong cards to play: the candidacy of Edoardo Rixi, one of the main Northern League leaders who has considerable strength in Liguria, or that of the mayor from Genoa Marco Bucci, who is an independent although close to the League and who can boast considerable popularity. However, Bucci’s ace up his sleeve would probably be another: the strong bond with the national coordinator of Italia viva Raffaella Paita, who was defeated by Toti in the regional elections.
In the next elections, Renzi’s party will play a role in some important situations and you can be sure that its leader will not fail to take advantage of the opportunity. In Florence, where there will be voting on 9 June in conjunction with the European elections, for example, it is not at all certain and indeed very unlikely that, in the possible run-off, the IV candidate Stefania Saccardi will choose to support the centre-left rather than the right and the theme will be repeated when we vote for the Region in 2025 and it will be the most dangerous vote of all for Elly Schlein. Losing Red Tuscany would be a trauma for the Democratic Party, so much so as to put the secretariat itself at risk. It is not a remote possibility, with all the Tuscan provinces except Florence and Livorno already controlled by the centre-right and the support of Renzi, who still has weight and following in Tuscany, could be decisive. An authoritative and independent candidacy like that of Bucci could move IV to the right also in Liguria.
The most powerful politician in the Region, with Toti, however, is the president of the province of Imperia and former Minister of the Interior with Berlusconi Claudio Scajola. Scajola today declares himself neither centre-right nor centre-left but it goes without saying that these are words. He will be among the main puppeteers of the right in the choice of candidate for governor and there are those who do not even exclude the possibility, in reality remote, of his candidacy. In the centre-left for now there is only one name circulating wildly: that of the former Minister of Justice and now leader of the left of the Democratic Party Andrea Orlando. Which, however, does not lift the reservation and certainly will not do so until the psychodrama of Toti’s resignation is over. One way or another.
