GOLD – The slowdown in US employment rekindles hopes

Done

Price up +0.4% at the opening, extending yesterday’s brilliant +1.6%.

Hopes of seeing a more accommodative FED have been rekindled following yesterday’s signals emerging from the US labor market.

New weekly US unemployment claims grew to 231 thousand, from the previous 209 thousand, more than expected at 212 thousand. It is the highest figure since August.

Experts point out that the data has been tainted by some distorting factors that may not be repeated, but if the deceleration of the world’s largest economy will find further confirmation in the decline in US consumer/production price indices next week and/or from retail sales, then one could be more optimistic about a change of pace by the FED.

In the meantime, the rate cuts from Sweden and Brazil have arrived.

La Boe (Bank of England) confirmed rates at 5.25%, a 16-year high, but the governor, Andrew Bailey, said he was “optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.”

The BoE said its Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2. Lieutenant Governor Dave Ramsden joined Swati Dhingra in voting for a cut to 5%.

The Committee has hinted that the first cut since March 2020 could come as early as its next meeting in June, a potential boost for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Gold’s annual balance sheet is excellent, around +14%, and is now in the high range of 2024 performance among the main financial assets.

Effect

Technical analysis. The prolonged rally, started from the 2022 lows in the USD 1,600 area, led the trend to break through the upper part of the growing channel…

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