There are some slow steps forward, but the crisis of the real estate market it’s not behind us at all. And the forecast of a rate cut by the ECB in June is not enough to cheer up anyone who wants it buy a house in Italy. Prices remain very high, especially in some cities, despite the fact that mortgages have become almost unaffordable and have caused sales to collapse.
The latest official data are those from Istat: in the fourth quarter of 2023 the house price index it remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter, but increased by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2022. And above all, the prices of new homes are increasing (+8.9%). Despite the drop in sales, therefore, prices do not fall.
The crisis in the real estate market, sales continue to decline
It doesn’t improve the situation trades, which continue to fall in the final months of 2023, even if the losses are smaller than in the past. The Revenue Agency’s observatory, published in March, highlights how in the last quarter of 2023 the decline in home purchases was 3.3%, or almost 202 thousand sales carried out, 7 thousand less than a year earlier.
In all of 2023, almost 710 thousand homes were sold, down by approximately 10% compared to 2022. And purchases with mortgages collapse: in the last quarter less than 40% of sales took place through financing. It is therefore not enough that mortgages have already fallen – awaiting the first rate cut – compared to the highs reached during 2023.
Year in which, for the first time, a decline in home purchases. But operators in the sector are optimistic and think that in 2024, also thanks to the sharp decline from which we start, the trend could be reversed. But before making any predictions it is better to wait for the data for the first quarter of 2024.
Home purchases in different cities
The decrease in sales was more marked in capital municipalitieswith a decrease of 4.7% in the last quarter, or 3 thousand less than in the same period of 2022. But even in non-capital municipalities there was a decrease of 2.7%.
As he explains the sun 24 hours, in the eight largest cities by population, the negative annual variation is even greater: -5.7%, or approximately 1,800 fewer purchases compared to the same months of the previous year. The worst data are those of Rome (-11%) e Florence (-8%), but also Bologna (-5.7%). The decline in purchases in Naples, Milan and Palermo was less marked (below 3%).
