In his analysis, trader Peter Brandt published his prediction for the price of Bitcoin, stating that we are in the “exponential decay” phase of its cycle. In numbers, for Brandt the peak has already been reached, and now BTC is set to drop in price to the mid-$30,000s or to the 2021 lows.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC to Mid-$30,000 or 2021 Lows
In his blog post, the veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that we are in the “exponential decay” phase of the Bitcoin cycle. Therefore, his price prediction for BTC will be a sharp decline to the mid-$30,000s or to 2021 lows.
Here are his words:
“But for now we have to deal with exponential decay. It happened. It’s real. You may not want to believe it, but I believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached the high for this cycle. If Bitcoin has peaked, what will be the next step? Obviously I have no idea. But if Bitcoin has peaked, I would expect a drop towards the mid-$30Ks, or towards the 2021 lows.”
In practice, the trader has analyzed the price history of Bitcoin, highlighting that there have been 4 bullish cycles and that we are currently in the fifth major bullish cycle.
In this regard, Brandt describes what this data could mean that the peak of the BTC price for this bullish cycle has already been reached. This means that it could entering the “exponential decay” phase for Bitcoin.
Peter Brandt describes the phase of “exponential decay”
Brandt says he is saddened by his pessimistic predictions on the price of Bitcoin, but also encouraged by the fact that data is data. For Brandt, Bitcoin is one of his most important investment positions.
Anyway, here it is the data of the five bullish cycles for Bitcoin, [con avanzamento si intende la crescita del prezzo di BTC dal minimo al suo massimo del ciclo].
- From 21 December 2009 to 6 June 2011 [avanzamento di 3.191X].
- From November 14, 2011 to November 25, 2013 [avanzamento di 572X].
- From 17 August 2015 to 18 December 2017 [avanzamento di 122X].
- From 10 Dec. 2018 to 8 Nov. 2021 [ avanzamento di 22X]
- From November 21, 2022 to xxx x, yyyy [il massimo finora è 73.835 dollari registrati il 14 marzo 2024].
Not only that, Brandt adds:
The breadth of the 2011-2013 cycle was approximately 20% of that of the 2009-2011 cycle.
The size of the 2015-2017 cycle was approximately 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle.
The size of the 2018-2021 cycle was approximately 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle.
Applying this theory forward, the current bull cycle is expected to experience an exponential advance of approximately 4.5x (80% of the 22x of the 2018-2021 cycle).
Said in numbers, Brandt considers that the minimum for the current cycle is 15,473 dollars, therefore the forecast of the maximum for this cycle is 72,723 dollars, already reached in mid-March 2024.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC to USD 100,000 by End of 2024
Recently, the results of the survey conducted by Finder were revealed involved 31 crypto market specialists and analystswith the aim of having new price predictions for Bitcoin.
Unlike Brandt, optimism seems to dominate on average here. And indeed, the first result speaks that on average, the prediction for the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2024 will be $109,141.
Not only that, the other predictions speak of BTC to $150,996 by 2025 and $567,489 by 2030.
Even here, however, there were more bearish participants, who have stated that they expect the BTC price will also drop below $20,000 by the end of the year.
