The extreme event in Dubai (see here) leads us to formulate some reflections for the Mediterranean area and for Italy. The area is by its nature exposed to extreme rainfall events as:
– presents an impressive source of hot-humid air masses (the Mediterranean Sea) and is also close to source regions of cold air masses (North Atlantic, North Pole, Siberian area) and here it must be remembered that it is from the contrast between hot and cold air masses that atmospheric disturbances arise
– it is home to an impressive orography (Pyrenees, Alps, Apennines, Atlas, Dinaric Alps, Pindus Mountains, etc.) which pushes the incoming air masses to rise, thus intensifying the rainfall.
We also know that the drier an area is and poor in precipitation and the higher the percentage of rain that falls in the form of extreme rainfall events. In this regard, think of the terrible event that recently devastated Derna in Libya or the deaths that traditionally occur in North Africa due to floods wadidesolately dry for the majority of the year.
The bibliography also indicates that the cold phases (e.g. the cold period between 1311 and 1850, known as the “little ice age”) are more exposed than the warm ones to extreme rainfall events. In this regard and to stay in a more recent and non-suspicious period of anthropogenic global warming, we remember the “big one” witnessed in 1951, the year in which there were 4 tragic events, namely the well-known Polesine flood on 14 November to which are added 3 less well-known floods which occurred in October due to the effect of a Mediterranean vortex of unusual power which produced the rain that normally falls in three years. The consequence was the flood of Sicca d’Erba in Sardinia (over 1536 mm rained in 5 days), that of Nicolosi in eastern Sicily (1366 mm in 3 days) and that of Calabria (over 1500 mm in 3 days).
Faced with events of similar intensityalways possible in the Mediterranean for the physical-geographical reasons explained above, one wonders what the media would say today, and here I am almost certain that the poor dead would be sacrificed on the altar of global warming, used as a fig leaf to hide technical-operational insufficiencies or more simply to avoid having to confess that they have found themselves faced with phenomena that are too powerful to be addressed with human means.
In short, at the level of civil protection against extreme rainfall events it would be necessary to move towards an attitude similar to that which is being laboriously established for earthquakes, that is, that it is necessary to be prepared for the worst by adopting adequate preventive policies, for example dams and expansion tanks to laminate floods, hydraulic-agricultural and hydraulic arrangements -forestry and also interventions to avoid excessive waterproofing of the soil. Add to this the fact that for inhabited centers that are too exposed to flood risk, it would be necessary to adopt unpopular preventive evacuation policies for the inhabitants or to activate rapid warning systems based for example on sirens, as the alarm launched on mobile phones, which are too often turned off or unreachable, is not enough.
Above all, an educational action would be useful towards the population who should be made aware of the collection places set up for possible emergencies and made aware of the fact that people are saved first and then if possible the goods: it is in fact not tolerable that our fellow citizens drown in garages to save the car.
In essence, if you want to think that the “water bombs” are a peculiarity of our time (which is not true, in light of the data) you are completely free to do so: the important thing is that everything in the power of each of us is done to develop preventive and curative actions aimed at saving firstly people and then, where possible, goods.
However, we conclude on a note of optimism: the Irpi Institute of the Cnr keeps updated national statistics on extreme hydro-geological events (landslides and floods) and the figure shows the graph summarizing the data collected from 1915 to 2022. The most terrible years can be immediately seen from it (for example the aforementioned 1951, 1963, the year of the Vajont and 1966, the year of the Florence flood). It should also be noted that there are no trends towards an increase in the frequency of these events and the related mortality, which on the one hand tells us that the climate has not yet gone crazy and on the other that overall a good effort has been made work by the authorities responsible for civil protection at national and regional level.
Figure – Number of floods and landslides and number of deaths and injuries (historical series 1915-2022 – source: CNR IRPI).
Tags: Floods Mediterranean important prepare
