Croatian elections, Andrej Plenković wins but is without a majority: what can happen now?

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, conservative and resolutely pro-European, in office since 2016 and candidate of the Croatian Democratic Union (Hdz), won yesterday the highly criticized parliamentary elections in Croatia with 34.4% of the votes. But the outgoing prime minister’s party still recorded a decline of 3% compared to 2020. To remain in power, the Democratic Union will therefore still need the support of far-right groups or liberals.

The courtship begins: right or liberal?

The state election commission said the Democratic Union won 61 seats in the 151-seat parliament. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) obtained 42 seats. The far-right Movement for the State 14 seats, thus becoming the tipping point for the next government’s negotiations.

Another 8 seats are added to the 61 seats into which the percentage of votes of 34.4% translates: Plenković, in fact, can count on the vote of the eight ethnic minorities, including the Italian one which sees Furio Radin reconfirmed, dean of the parliament of which he is member since 1992. To reach a majority of 76 votes and confidence for his third consecutive government, Plenković needs 7 votes. Plenković’s great negotiating skills will almost certainly lead to a new position, probably with some deputies from the liberal center or the nationalist right.

The other parties

The vote pitted conservatives, led by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, against an alliance of centrist and left-wing parties informally led by populist President Zoran Milanović and the Social Democratic Party.

The Social Democrats (SDP) of Peđa Grbin were defeated and second, with 24.4% and 42 seats, a result unchanged compared to the 2020 policies. The real leader of the center-left, however, is the President of the Republic Zoran Milanović, who in spite banned by the Constitutional Court, he ran a month ago to form the new government and send home Plenković, his bitter enemy, despised on a personal and political level.

Milanović made no statements on election night and seems to be attempting a turnaround with a transversal government that would bring together the left and right in an executive of “national salvation from the corruption and cronyism of the Democratic Union”.

The two right-wing parties can be satisfied with the solid result obtained.

The Patriotic Movement (DP, nationalists) received 9.6% of the votes which translates into 14 seats, while the sovereignists of Most (Ponte) received 8%, therefore 11 deputies.

On the left, however, the Greens of Možemo (We can) remain strong only in the Croatian capital, where they have governed for three years. At a national level they obtained 9% of the vote, and 10 seats. Three liberal and center parties, strong only at a regional level, also enter parliament. However, their five deputies could be the decisive ones for Plenković’s new majority. Otherwise, a difficult and long political crisis looms which, as a last resort, could also involve a return to the polls.

The reactions of Minister Antonio Tajani

The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Antonio Tajani in a post on Your success in the elections is the victory of the EPP, and of our common values. Citizens want serious, credible, reliable and responsible leaders. We will continue to work together for a stronger Europe.”

The scenarios ahead of the European Championships

If the Forza Italia minister has expressed his enthusiasm for a comrade from the European People’s Party, it is very likely that President Giorgia Meloni is not in the same mood. The prime minister, in fact, is not running in the European elections with Forza Italia, but with the Party of European Conservatives and Reformists, so she certainly cannot consider the newly elected Croatian as her companion. Ipsos polls show a decline in support for the Brothers of Italy even though it is still the leading party with 27%. So in the next European elections it could obtain up to 24 seats.

For the European elections in Croatia we will vote on June 9th, as in Italy. The elections for the Croatian Parliament could be a dress rehearsal for the European elections and see the European People’s Party favored in Croatia. But on the other hand, the elections of the outgoing Plenković