Lately the fear of a new year without summer has been raging. Let’s see together what it is and why it scares.
The idea of a year without summer might seem surreal, but it has actually happened in the past. But let’s see what exactly the expression ‘Year Without Summer’ means.
2024, a year without summer
1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer, or the Year of Poverty. During that period, severe summer weather anomalies destroyed crops in northern Europe, in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. These anomalies have been attributed mainly to the eruption of the Tambora volcano on the island of Sumbawa, in present-day Indonesia, which occurred between April 5 and 15, 1815. This eruption released enormous quantities of volcanic ash into the upper layers of the atmosphere, causing a lowering global temperatures as sunlight was blocked by ash.
Apart from this, two other phenomena contributed to global cooling during that period: the Dalton Minimum and the Little Ice Age. The Dalton Minimum was a period during which the Sun was believed to exude less energy than normal, while the Little Ice Age was a phase of global cooling that lasted from the Middle Ages until the 1850s.
To understand what awaits us nowadays we need to look at the seasonal forecast, which offer an overview of precipitation and temperatures expected for the coming months. It is also important to consider the global climate system, in particular the Pacific Ocean, where two significant phenomena alternate: La Niña and El Niño.
La Niña and El Niño are large-scale phenomena that occur at the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing global climate. El Niño leads to anomalous warming of surface waters, while La Niña causes cooling. The name El Niño, which means “the child” in Spanish, comes from the fact that anomalous warming reaches its peak around Christmas. La Niña, on the other hand, represents the opposite, with ocean waters 1-3°C colder than average.
What should we expect
Currently, NOAA, the US agency that deals with ocean and atmospheric dynamics, has announced that The surface waters of the Pacific Ocean are warming more than expected, signaling the start of an El Niño phenomenon that is expected to be exceptional this year. In general, El Niño leads to an increase in global temperatures, but the Mediterranean summer is currently struggling to stabilize, in stark contrast to the global warming trend.
It remains to be seen how the situation will evolve in the coming weeks. Climatic conditions could still change, influencing the course of the summer. What is certain is that the climate continues to surprise us and defy our expectations.
