Can ten teams be enough for us? Ten Italians in the next cups of course, remembering Battisti. An almost science fiction perspective, because it requires a series of unlikely coincidences. But the very fact that it is being talked about is a sign of Italy’s new role in the cup competitions. And then it’s not science fiction to dream of 6 Italians in the Champions League. It can be done. The 2024-25 season is that of the great reform, Champions League with 36 teams and a single group. Italy arrives first class. It has 8 safe teams. It could reach 9, if Fiorentina takes the Conference. Then there’s that 10: difficult, but never say never. What needs to happen for it to be an Italian League? Let’s look at the scenarios. Naturally starting from one assumption: the current championship ranking. Otherwise the variables become infinite.
our places
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The seat allocation system in the cups is not exactly simple to explain. Let’s start from the beginning. Serie A – with its place now fixed among the top four leagues in Europe – starts from 4-2-1. It is not a revolutionary tactical system, but the number of clubs in the cups: 4 in the Champions League (the top 4); 2 in the Europa League (5th and winner of the Italian Cup); 1 in Conference (the 6th). Then the story changes a bit: if one of the first wins the national cup, the 6th goes to Europe and the 7th is promoted to the Conference. And up to here, as in Berlin, to stay on the musical theme, not a single child is lost. Now let’s add the European cups. Whoever wins the Champions League and Europa League, as we know, has a place in the Champions League: if he is not already qualified for the championship, he gives an extra slot to his country. Ditto for whoever wins the Conference and automatically enters the Euroleague. The contingent can therefore increase.
the news
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The new cup system, which has expanded the Champions League from 32 to 36 teams, provides a new, very interesting and meritocratic variable. The two leagues with the best overall performance in the cups (the seasonal UEFA ranking) gain an extra team in the following year’s Champions League. It’s the first time it’s happened and it’s an Italian miracle: we’re first, arithmetically we can’t drop to third place between now and the end of the cups, so we’ll have the extra team. The other is played by the Bundesliga (favourites), the Premier League and Ligue 1. Strange to say, La Liga is out, the aftermath of Ronaldo & Messi was dramatic (except for Real Madrid).
the security
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Let’s go back to Italy, hit by sudden prosperity for two reasons. The extra place for the ranking (certain) and the extra places for the cups (possible): we have Roma and Atalanta in the semi-finals of the Europa League, Fiorentina in the Conference one. The rivals are, respectively, Leverkusen, Marseille and Bruges. On paper only De Rossi concedes something to the German champions, but the result is not yet written. We can win two cups. Result: meanwhile in the next cups, thanks to the ranking, we will certainly have 8 clubs (it happened seven times between 1990 and 2009). For now they are these: Inter, Milan, Juve, Bologna and Roma (Champions); Atalanta and Lazio (Europe); Naples (Conference). We will have 8 either by not winning any cup or by winning the Europa League with Roma or Atalanta (having already qualified, they would not add an extra place). With a difference in distribution. By winning the cup, they would be 6 in the Champions League, 1 in Europe and 1 in the Conference (instead of 5-2-1). But the Italians could be 9. How?
the target
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Nine teams if Fiorentina wins the Conference: being 9th in the league, they would enter the Euroleague and give an additional place to Italy (5-3-1). If Roma or Atalanta also won Europe, the balance would shift: still 9, but 6-2-1. It’s not over. On the horizon there is that 10 we were talking about. A school case: it would happen if the winners of the two cups reached 8th place (or worse) in the championship, therefore out of the cups. Not only that: Atalanta winning in EL should finish 8th and Roma 5th (or vice versa). Only in this way would another place be added for the 10th of Serie A. Complicated and difficult, but as long as it is not impossible…
