He will not resign even in case of defeat. But he plays to win. After the decision to call new National Assembly elections for June 30, Emmanuel Macron will reveal in a press conference today his plan to win a “clear majority” for the remainder of his five-year mandate. “I run to win,” he told Le Figaro, adding that he wanted to “reach all those who are ready to govern” with him. And excluding his resignation in the event of an unfavorable outcome of the polls. Certainly the polls for now put him as the underdog: Rassemblement National is at 35%, the Front Populaire at 25%, the outgoing majority is stuck at 18%. And the Republicans meanwhile open up to Marine Le Pen, even if Eric Ciotti’s decision sends the party into crisis.
The two scenarios
Meanwhile, Sylvie Goulard, president of the Franco-German institute of Ludwisgburg, with the Corriere della Sera prefigures two scenarios for the post-election period in France. The first is the one that sees a majority of the RN with Bardella as prime minister, the other a blocked parliament without a majority: «If there wasn’t a clear majority in the National Assembly, Macron could govern with Article 49.3 as he basically has already done in the past two years, perhaps giving up major reforms. Of course, from a political point of view it would be a very difficult situation, perhaps with a “third round” in the streets, but the legal tools to move forward still exist.” Goulard also hypothesizes two scenarios for the possible consequences on Europe of a victory for Bardella and Marine Le Pen. Also warning that a French rejection of the EU could become dangerous.
Bardella like Meloni?
According to Goulard «there is a scenario that we could define as Italian, with Giorgia Meloni who before gaining power was very critical of France and Europe but then agreed to sit at the European table, she received, without complaining for as far as I could see, the important amounts of the Pnrr, discovered that Europe can help, and so far it has normalized. The RN could start to do the same: a normalization that is not enough to make Europe live, but at least it would be a reduction of the damage.” The other scenario is «the one I really fear: the Trojan horse scenario, anti-Europe parties like the RN or Lega or recently converted ones like the Brothers of Italy who enter the system and end up destroying it. Either voluntarily or because they are unable to make difficult decisions, especially in budgetary terms, leading to the collapse of the currency and the single market.”
The alliances
Even on the RN side there are problems with alliances. The one with Reconquête by Eric Zemmour, explains AFP, failed. The Lepenians reject the very principle of an agreement not to be associated with Eric Zemmour, said Marion Maréchal, Le Pen’s niece. The four main left-wing parties (LFI, PS, Ecologists, PCF), as well as Raphaël Glucksmann’s Place publique movement and Générations, are calling for “single candidacies from the first round”. But the choice of a leader remains an unknown. Meanwhile, yesterday for the third consecutive evening, the left found itself in the streets – in République in the case of Paris, but rallies were held throughout the country – to demonstrate against the far right. A daily cadence reminiscent of 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen arrived on the presidential ballot for the first time.
The specter of 2002
At the time, throughout France, for two weeks, the parties took to the streets every evening demonstrating for the Republican Front, which then gave victory by the widest margin to Jacques Chirac. Below the headquarters of the Républicains, as Ciotti left, there were scuffles due to the protest of an ecologist deputy who shouted “shame” and some young people from the Jewish students’ union of France who protested against the surrender to Le Pen.
