Rome, 11 June 2024 – Political agreement between the National Rassemblement of Marie Le Pen and the Republicains in view of the next political elections in France. The party of Le Pen in fact it will present itself at the next ones elections alongside the Republicains. A move that could weigh heavily on the vote. For the first time in the history of Fifth Republic in France, the Républicains, heirs of neo-Gaullistsannounce an agreement in the framework of the legislative elections in 20 days with theextreme right of the National Rallythe party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.
Eric Ciotti and Marie Le Pen
The agreement could have a decisive impact on the next elections, after the president Macrona few hours after the vote for the European elections which saw Le Pen win in France, has dissolved the National Assembly (the French parliament) effectively calling new elections.
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At last European elections Les Republicains obtained 7.3% of the vote while the Rassemblement National exceeded 31% (31.4%). Having said that in politics 1+1 does not always and necessarily equal 2 and that the guidelines for voting in political and European elections (the electoral system also changes which in France, among other things, provides for a double round) may change, the agreement represents a significant turning point in the French political landscape (and beyond).
In any case, Marine Le Pen welcomed the decision of the president of the Republicains (LR), Eric Ciotti, to find an agreement for the next legislative elections with the RN. Eric Ciotti said he hoped “that a significant number of Lr. executives they follow him”. A hope that seems misplaced given that his announcement of an alliance between the LR and the RN is causing pandemonium among the ranks of all Republicans, from the top of the party.
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But again today the LR senators unanimously spoke out against it. As the deputies as well as the former minister are doing one at a time EU Commissioner Michel Barnier and the former government spokesperson during the Sarkozy presidency, Jean Francois Cope. And also defectors from the party like the current one Interior Minister Gerald Darmarin. “Eric Ciotti signs the Munich agreements and plunges the Gaullist family into dishonor by allying himself with Marine Le Pen,” he wrote. Even numerous mayors, regional and provincial presidents are distancing themselves from Ciotti.
Twenty days before the vote for the French legislative elections, a poll clearly puts Marine’s Rassemblement National in the lead Le Pen that would take the 34% of the votes. A score significantly increasing compared to 2022 (18.7%). Long underrepresented in the Assembly, the RN would appear to be the driving force in the lower house.
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Numbers and percentages
However, since legislative elections are held in 577 constituencies and are divided into two shifts, it is very difficult to predict a precise number of seats. At the moment it is not possible to know whether Le Pen will obtain an absolute or even relative majority.
Second place would go to Nupes (22%), provided that the four left-wing parties that make up the alliance relaunch the coalition. The leaders of each formation discussed this hypothesis on Monday evening.
The field of Macron would have the third step of the podium, with the 19% of the votes. Almost 7 points less than in 2022 and 13 points less than in 2017. The presidential coalition would most likely no longer have the status of a majority, not even a relative one.
The Republicans would be credited with 9% of the votes (although much could change in light of the agreement).
Ultimately it would remain Reconquest! with 4% of the votes, a total similar to the 2022 elections (4.2%) which did not allow the party to obtain a single deputy. And finally the forces of extreme left which would gravitate around 3%.
The Wrath of Marion Maréchal
And if on the one hand it is open to an agreement with the Republics, Marion Maréchalnephew of Marine Le Pen and leader of Eric Zemmour’s party, Reconquete, at the European elections, condemned “a change of position” of the Rassemblement National, which – he said in a statement – “rejects the principle of an agreement” on the legislative elections. “Despite my attempts to negotiate – said Marécal – the unpleasant argument that was put forward to me is that they do not wish for any direct or indirect association with Eric Zemmour”. La Maréchal specifies that Jordan Bardellaleader of Le Pen’s party – informed her of the decision this afternoon.
Macron: I will not resign
“No, not at all: I confirm it”: with these words, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron he answered the question of whether he had gone mad, which is the one many French people asked themselves when he decided to dissolve the national assembly and call new elections. It was the Figaro journalist who made it to him during the return flight from Oradour sur Glane, where yesterday he celebrated the anniversary of a Nazi massacre with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. “What does he say to someone who wonders if he’s crazy?” “No, not at all: I confirm that. I’m only thinking of France. It was the right decision, in the interests of the country.” Macron reiterated to Le Figaro that he will not leave the Elysée regardless of the outcome of the early vote of next June 30th.
