Which parties will be most penalized?

And even in this electoral round, the party most voted by Italians risks being that of abstentionism. For the first time, more Italians may not vote than those who will: «I don’t have a crystal ball – says Roberto D’Alimonti, referring to the participation rate in the European elections – but the fears of these days seem well founded to me. There is a risk of falling below the 54 percent of the last time” Unfortunately, an electoral behavior that we know well and which especially involves the new generations.

European elections 2024, from the Stability Pact to armaments: challenges (and shadows) of the new Europe explained point by point

According to the Piepoli Institute, only 47 percent of Italians under 35 intend to vote in the upcoming European elections. Also according to another authoritative polling institute, Swg, the abstention rate among young people fluctuates around 50 percent. This phenomenon could have a significant impact on the next European elections, penalizing some parties in particular. What are these parties and why do they risk being penalised?

A remote trend

Unfortunately this is nothing new: Since 1979, the year of the first elections for the European Parliament, Italians’ interest in what happens in Brussels and Strasbourg has been waning. At least if you look at voter participation, which has fallen from 85.7% at the beginning to 54.5 five years ago. And this time – say the pollsters’ forecasts – the bar could end up around the psychological threshold of one in two Italians voting. With a splash, in particular, among the under 35s, who emerge from the surveys as the most “doubtful”: those in whom the mix between indecision and abstentionism weighs, according to Quorum-Youtrend, between 15 and 20 points more than the other groups of age.

Who profits from it?

Thanks to its strong electoral base and consolidated support in several regions, the impact of abstentionism on Fratelli d’Italia could be less drastic compared to parties with a less stable electoral base. Although the prime minister aims to exceed 30 percent in the European elections, pollsters predict a result between 26 and 27 percent, which would still prove to be an excellent result. “Already confirming the percentage of policies, after almost two years in government, would be a result that cannot be taken for granted”, underlines D’Alimonte.

Who loses?

Among all the 5 Star Movement (M5S). The five-star party risks being particularly penalised, because a large part of its electorate is located in the South, a region where traditionally the turnout for European elections is lower. «For southerners, Europe is distant. It is a vote that does not affect them closely”, states the political scientist D’Alimonte in an interview with Repubblica. With the increase in abstentionism, the M5S could see a significant drop in votes, reducing its political weight and representation in European institutions. Parties that try to exceed the 4 percent threshold are also more at risk, for which even one vote can make a difference. But abstentionism also raises alarm for the League, which has been in a direct duel with Forza Italia for months now to win over a significant portion of the centre-right electorate.

© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Read the full article at
The morning