In India the largest democratic elections in history are about to begin. Approximately 949 million citizens out of over 1.4 billion in total, approximately 12% of the world population, have the right to vote and will be able to go to the polls over the next 44 days to renew the 543 seats of the Lok Shaba (the Lower House). There are one million polling stations at their disposal, spread across the country, which will be monitored by 15 million members of the security forces and electoral staff. Each state in the country will be able to vote in one of the seven rounds scheduled between now and June 1st while the final results will be announced on June 4th. The voting system is electronic and whoever is about to express their preference will be marked with indelible ink on the left index finger to avoid cases of duplicates.
The nationalist coalition is competing for the final victory National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi And the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliancean opposition front led by the Indian National Congress and formed by over 40 parties who have joined forces to try to defeat Modi, who has been in power since 2010. The task promises to be difficult and the most recent electoral polls certify a clear advantage for the NDA, estimated between 46% and 52% of the votes, against 34 -42% of rivals’ approval. The most recent consultations, held in 2019, ended with the triumph of the alliance led by Modi which obtained 352 seats while the Congress Party stopped at 52.
An opinion poll research, carried out by Center for the Study of Developing Societies with a sample of 10 thousand participants, highlighted how the unemployment is the main concern for 27% of the sample interviewed. 62% explained how it has become more difficult to find work over the last five years while 35% said their life quality it got worse. The second concern of voters, with 23% of the indications, concerns the increase in prices while it development of the country and the corruption they worry, respectively, 13% and 8% of voters.
Modi’s probable electoral success is linked to the excellent state of health of theIndian economy. In the 2022-2023 fiscal year it grew by 7.2%, the second highest level among the member states of the G20. The Indian economy could become the third largest in the world by 2027, driven by sectors such as technology And innovation which are transforming it into a point of reference on a global scale in these areas. New Delhi it has invested heavily in the digital economy and in large companies infrastructure projects capable of increasing the country’s connectivity.
The good news on a macroeconomic level, however, goes hand in hand with weaknesses and shortcomings that undermine the health of Indian democracy and the most disadvantaged segments of its population. Freedom Housea non-governmental organization that monitors the respect of civil and political rights in the world with an annual report, highlights the problems generated by corruption, politicization of the lowest grades of judiciarygive her violence and give them discriminations suffered by members of lower castes, protected at a constitutional level but struggling with a difficult daily life. The sector of private media, Freedom House reminds us, is vigorous and diversified but the attacks against it have grown during Modi’s premiership and the authorities have resorted to a series of laws to silence critical voices present in the information sector. Muslims residing in the country have been subjected to attacks and discrimination and according to some, the Modi government has encouraged nationalist organizations and media outlets that spread anti-Muslim propaganda. Another significant problem is the sexual violence and the abuse suffered by women, with several egregious and tragic cases having been reported.
The result of the Indian consultations is destined, then, to impact regional and global balances. The Modi government has established good relations with the United States but also with the Russia Of Vladimir Putin, choosing the path of neutrality in the toughest moments of conflict and aiming to pursue a great power policy. The regional competition with the Chinawhich undermines India’s sphere of influence in nations such as Maldives And Sri Lankaand the rivalry with the Pakistanwhich claims control of the Kashmir Indian, could be affected by a new statement from Modi.
