Human emissions of greenhouse gases continue to warm the Earth’s surface at an unprecedented rate and, with all the heat that accumulates, the frequency and intensity of extreme events increases: very long heat waves, droughts and fires, floods with storms, hail and tornadoes. Climate risk is becoming increasingly complex, and this weekend could provide further evidence of that.
The meteorologists of the site www.-, in fact, confirm that heat and intense phenomena are sides of the same coin: as the heat increases, thunderstorms, for example, are much more intense, a bit like what once only happened in the tropics or ‘equator. Now the Italian climate has become tropicalized and convective events (thunderstorms) are much more frequent and above all dangerous.
Record heat, UN alarm: “We are not in danger. We are the danger. Humanity as the meteorite of dinosaurs”
by Elena Dusi
06 June 2024
Record values
The heat has increased, we know, and May 2024 also recorded a record value: it was the hottest May in history on a global level, making it the 12th month in a row with this sad record. Furthermore, analyzing the last few months, since July 2023 we have been above the threshold of 1.5°C defined by climatologists as a threshold not to be exceeded.
Beyond this threshold, if it were continuously exceeded for at least 20 years, the days of African heat, with maximums above 35°C, would rise dramatically: for example, in Italy from the current 5-10 days/year we would go to 25-60 days/year; in practice in summer you would have 2 months at over 35°C in the shade on the plains, without interruption!
And this weekend in June could confirm even more everything that has been happening since the end of the 80s, the planet warming ever faster, the heat becoming extreme and storm phenomena becoming increasingly violent.
Stuffy in the center
In fact, the next few hours will see temperatures rise dramatically, with maximum temperatures reaching 35°C in Taranto, with 34°C spread across the Major Islands (isolated peaks of 37°C in Sardinia), 32°C also in the Center -North with Ascoli Piceno, Bolzano, Forlì, Ferrara and Terni among the least virtuous from a climatic point of view (a marked increase in heat is also expected).
On Saturday 8 June we will reach the peak of the heat in the Centre-North, while in the South the peak will arrive between next Tuesday and Wednesday: on Saturday the mercury will expand to 38°C in Oristano, 36°C in Taranto, 35°C in Foggia and Syracuse with Matera and Terni at 34°C. It will also reach 33°C in the North, particularly in the internal areas of Romagna.
Sunday in Sicily 42°C
On Sunday the African picture, associated with the Anticyclone Scipione, will be even hotter in the South and only in part of the Centre: showers are in fact arriving in the North and towards Tuscany, with an increase in clouds which will contribute to bringing the highs down on these areas.
Where the weather remains sunny we will have peaks of 37°C in Syracuse, 35-36°C throughout Puglia, from Foggia to Salento! Some microzones may be even hotter thanks to dry falling winds or other local phenomena: in Cefalù, for example, 39°C is expected in the shade.
In the South, the heat will continue, as mentioned, until Wednesday: exceptional values are expected in the first 3 days of the new week, up to 42°C in Sicily. A first decidedly severe African heat wave.
Storms in the Alps
And all the accumulated heat will be the fuel for the other extreme phenomenon, expected in the next few days: the formation of enormous cumulonimbus clouds with decidedly strong thunderstorms. From the afternoon of Sunday 9 June the first storms are expected in the western Alps, subsequently descending towards the Piedmont and Lombardy Po Valley. At least until Monday evening, the alert will be high throughout Northern Italy and part of Tuscany, with possible large hail, flash floods and tornadoes.
For all the details of the bad weather we will monitor the situation carefully, it is still early to understand the trajectory of the storms.
IN DETAIL
Friday 7. In the North: all sun with summer heat; at times veiled. In the Center: all sun with summer heat. In the South: sun and very hot climate.
Saturday 8. In the North: thunderstorms in the Alps and Pre-Alps, sunshine elsewhere. In the Center: sunny and very hot. In the South: sunny and very hot.
Sunday 9. In the North: bad weather arriving and a drop in temperature. In the Center: rain towards Tuscany, heat elsewhere. In the South: sun and very hot climate up to 39°C.
Trend: sun and heat rising up to 42°C in the South, with persistent and oppressive heat. Lots of thunderstorms, even strong ones, in the North and in part of the Centre.
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