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Giorgia Meloni denies the risk of Italy’s marginalization. She is convinced that the failure to vote in favor of Ursula von der Leyen will offer her the possibility of obtaining the recognition that “is due to Italy.” But while waiting to know the outcome of the negotiations between the Prime Minister and the same President-in-waiting of the European Commission, which will conclude on July 18 at the plenary assembly of the European Parliament, there is an objective fact: at the start of the new European legislature, the government majority is divided.
The Tajani-Salvini split
Matteo Salvini continues to fire on von der Leyen, repeating that “a coup d’état” is underway, confirming that “the league will never vote” for Ursula, hoping that his allies “do the same”. The leader of the Northern League obviously knows well that his wish will not be realized. Antonio Tajani’s support for von der Leyen’s installation at Palazzo Berlaymont is obvious given that Forza Italia is part of the EPP. Tajani has also repeated it in these hours, replying angrily to Salvini’s words (“it’s not my language”). The Italian number one is pushing to strengthen the relationship between the People’s Party and the Conservatives, the group which has the largest component in the Brothers of Italy and of which Meloni herself is the leader.
EU Conservatives and the Risk of Falling from Third to Fifth Group
At the moment, thanks to the growth of Fdi and the membership of smaller groups, the Conservatives (ECR) have become the third formation in the European Parliament, overtaking the liberals of Renew. An achievement which, however, risks being short-lived. In the same hours in which Meloni was discussing with the other European partners, the Polish leader of Law and Justice (Pis), the former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, was in fact threatening to leave the ECR to compose a new grouping together with the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán . Hypothesis also relaunched by Orban himself, who confirmed that he is working on a sovereignist group distinct from both Ecr and Identity and Democracy where Marine Le Pen’s National Rassemblemnt and the League sit. If the 20 Polish deputies were to leave ECR, the group would climb to fifth place and therefore behind the Le Pen-Salvini duo. A weakening for Meloni precisely in conjunction with the negotiation on the portfolio to be entrusted to Italy in the next community executive. The Poles will have to decide by July 3 when the group meeting will be held in view of the formal opening of parliament.
The rock maneuvers
But there is another front that worries the prime minister and that is the next budget where the relationship with Brussels will once again be crucial. Even more so after the opening of the infringement procedure for excessive deficit in recent weeks. Before the end of the summer the government will have to agree on the fiscal plan to restore public finances according to the parameters of the new stability pact. The main objective remains the reduction of debt. In any case, from there the margins of action for the future budget will be understood, which at the first point has the confirmation of the cut in the tax wedge. A very complicated game on which the current debate on the future European governance could also flow.
