In 2023 the Aosta Valley economy suffers a slowdown mainly due to inflation and geopolitical uncertainty which impacts exports, positive signals come from tourism which is clearly growing, while the Superbonus and the Pnrr drive the construction sector and businesses they can count on high liquidity and less financial fragility.
Summarize it like this Paolo Emilio Mistrullideputy director of the Aosta branch of the Bank of Italy, the annual report The economy of the Aosta Valley drawn up by Bankitalia, for businesses.
Businesses
«The profitability of companies is in line with 2022- he observes Mistrulli -, the percentage of profitable companies is high. Loans are decreasing due to the higher costs of interest rates and because companies have been able to count on abundant accumulated liquidity.”
Analyzing the various sectors, the report highlights the continuous growth phase of construction driven by the Superbonus, with an increase in hours worked of 12%, and by the opening of 51 Pnrr construction sites for a total of 36 million euros.
The manufacturing sector slows down, especially in the last quarter, due to the decline in exports, especially linked to the steel industry, which sees an improvement again in the first quarter of 2024.
«The tertiary sector overall continues its expansion, but less intense due to a slowdown in consumption – he observes Mistrulli -. For tourism, 2023 was a record year with a growth of 12% in arrivals and 11% in presences.”
The tourism effect also has repercussions on transport with a growth of +4.8% in light vehicles and 0.8% in heavy vehicles.
The Mont Blanc Tunnel recorded a decline of 1.3% due to the quarterly closure last winter.
Compared to the sudden closure after the 1999 fire which recorded a decline in the profitability of companies without having any effects on solvency, for future closures, being planned, the report predicts fewer negative effects, «companies will equip themselves to reduce the negative impacts as much as possible ».
Luciana Aimone Gigio, Simone D’Inverno and Paolo Emilio Mistrulli
The forecast for 2024
The Bank of Italy’s sample companies have formulated moderate growth expectations for 2024, with a decline in investment activity.
«In the tertiary sector, in particular, expectations were influenced by the very favorable trend of the winter tourist season, which continued beyond the usual deadline. In construction, the climate of confidence among companies remains positive: the reduction in tax incentives in the private sector would be compensated by the acceleration of the works planned under the Pnrr”.
The families
The report on the Aosta Valley economy then focuses on the trend of the labor market and the situation of families.
«2023 was also a year of slowdown for families, but still positive» he highlights Luciana Aimone GigioTerritorial economic analysis and research division of the Bank of Italy.
«Income is better than 0.1%, consumption grew by 1.4% and recovers pre-pandemic levels».
Consumption of durable goods is growing, after the supply difficulties, car registrations are rising.
On employment, Valle d’Aosta records a figure higher than the national level with a growth of 3%, with unemployment falling to 4% thanks to new hirings and the stabilization of fixed-term contracts.
The analysis of the demographic trend is worrying and sees, between 2007 and 2023, a population decline of 1.2% for the Aosta Valley compared to a general growth in Northern Italy.
The natural balance given by birth and mortality remains negative.
The contributions of migration are positive but remain limited, the foreign population grows by 6.8%, less than in the North (11%).
The number of migrations abroad by Aosta Valley residents is high, 30% of whom are graduates.
The decline in inhabitants in Valle d’Aosta is associated with an aging population with an average age of 47.1 years.
The workforce is growing very modestly, by 0.6%.
A positive fact concerns the growing participation in the labor market, especially for women (71%).
The forecasts formulated by Istat for the Aosta Valley predict a decline in the population over the next twenty years, more intense than the Italian average, which could potentially lead to problems of generational turnover and finding workers.
At the same time, the increase in the share of the older population requires services and adequate assistance to which the Pnrr in particular seeks to provide a response.
However, in achieving the objectives of the Plan it is necessary to take into account a shortage of healthcare personnel that is already present today and which will further worsen in the immediate future due to retirement leavers.
(erika david)
