by Daniele Bovi
Six hundred and two votes out of over 83 thousand valid votes. In the end, this is the difference between Vittoria Ferdinandi, mayoral candidate of the centre-left, and the outgoing councilor Margherita Scoccia, candidate of the centre-right. Translated, the 37-year-old needed 827 votes to win in the first round; a nothing. Having concluded the counting late at night, however, it is possible to take stock of what the vote was in the sections and neighborhoods of Perugia.
THE ANALYSIS: THE TIGHTEST MATCH EVER
The neighborhoods Of the 39 neighborhoods where Umbria24 has divided the municipal territory, Scoccia is ahead in 18 but obviously not everyone has the same weight and many results, on both sides, are linked to the presence in the sections of major supporters of preferences; to reiterate once again how decisive the list factor is. Ferdinandi is behind in areas such as Fratticiola, where there is the largest gap (-26 percent), in Pianello (-21 percent) where Otello Numerini (FI) and former Lega player David Bonifazi, now with Perugia, have prevailed civic which here reaches the record of 20 percent. In Castel del Piano and Bagnaia, Augusto Peltristo (FI) and Riccardo Mencaglia (FdI) were the ones pulling for Scoccia, so much so that Ferdinandi didn’t get more than 39 percent.
The numbers The centre-left candidate, as can be seen from our graph, is also below average in Ponte Pattoli, Olmo, San Marco and Pila, Scoccia’s “homeland”. In several areas, however, the gap is very small: from one to less than four points between Fontivegge, Montebello, Santa Lucia, Ferro di Cavallo and Ponte della Pietra. In Madonna Alta, out of over 4,300 votes cast, Scoccia won by just 9 (1 in the Colombella section, 327 to 326), in Ponte San Giovanni, out of almost six thousand, Ferdinandi obtained just 191 more, in San Sisto the centre-left candidate won with 4.5 percent advantage. The gap rises to 14 percent in Monteluce (where there is the dem Sarah Bistocchi, but not only) and in Pretola, to 13 in Villa Pitignano and above 10 in hamlets such as Resina, Collestrada, Solfagnano and Sant’Orfeto.
The absolutes In the center area the advantage for Ferdinandi is more than 9 percent, and over 8 percent between Montegrillo and Ponte D’Oddi (where among others there is the democrat Francesco Zuccherini), Ponte Valleceppi, Case Bruciate, Lacugnano and Elce. In Prepo there is a substantial draw as well as in San Martino in Campo. Translated into absolute terms, Scoccia puts precious hay on the farm in Castel del Piano and Bagnaia (695 more votes), in Ripa and Pianello (324), San Marco (221), San Martino in Colle (213), Olmo (200) and Pila (188). For Ferdinandi, however, 657 more votes in the centre, 447 in Monteluce, 221 in Villa Pitignano, 201 between Pallotta and Fonti Coperte.
Ballot Even from these numbers the reasoning will start again in view of the run-off, not a second half but a completely new match which essentially consists of a one-on-one match no longer driven by the lists, with the tiredness of militants and voters, the already holiday period, the disappointment and disengagement of those who did not succeed in the election and almost certainly – barring surprises – a drop in turnout. For the capital, this is the second run-off in the entire thirty years of direct election of mayors; in the previous one in 2014, 49 percent of Perugia voted and now solid statistics speak of a general decline for the second round throughout the country. If the percentage were around 50 percent, for the two contenders it would mean lowering the victory share to around 32 thousand votes.
