The first opponent to beat, in times of disaffection from politics and flight from the polls, will, as always, be abstention. In the last twenty years of European elections in the North East constituency – which with Emilia-Romagna includes Veneto, Trentino Alto-Adige and Friuli-Venezia Giulia — turnout went from 76.3% in 1999 to 63.9% in 2019: almost 13% of voters lost along the way for twenty years. A contraction, after years of anti-European propaganda straddling the right and various populisms, is expected this time too. Without forgetting the «M» factor such as weather. According to forecasts, 8 and 9 June could be the first summer weekend of the year. And the call of the sea, especially in a region that closes schools very early to make room for the bathing season, could keep many voters away from the polls despite 226 Municipalities we also vote for the renewal of mayors and municipal councils.
The challenges
The fight against abstention, however, is only one of the many challenges that will underpin the European elections on 8 and 9 June. On the party front, the first test will be the result of Fratelli d’Italia. Despite the homogeneity of the data, a comparison with the Europeans of 5 years ago is useless, when the League of the then unstoppable Matteo Salvini overtook the Democratic Party even in the “red” Emilia-Romagna with 33.8%; while Fratelli d’Italia was then still a small party consistently below 5%. Geological eras ago. More useful, if anything, is to look at the data from the latest political elections, as almost all parties are doing. The confirmation of the September 2022 result (25% in Emilia-Romagna) for the melonians it would mean the election of four-five MEPs who could become six in the event of a flop of the minor lists (due to the vote redistribution mechanism). If FdI were to overtake the Pd, as the League already did 5 years ago, it would present itself with its head held high in view of the Regionals next autumn.
“If it happened it would undoubtedly be a fairly clear signal, including a cultural one”, underlines the professor Paolo Pombeni, director of the Il Mulino magazine, so an overtaking of the Melonians on the Democrats along the Via Emilia would not in any case translate into a downhill road towards the conquest of Viale Aldo Moro. «At the European elections, let’s put it this way, the voters vote in a somewhat “irresponsible“, because ultimately they believe that these are elections that count for little and they vote on their gut – claims Pombeni – but when you have to vote for much more concrete things, such as the government of a Region, things change”. Still remaining in the centre-right, which in the North-East constituency will be able to count on the driving force of historically similar regions such as Veneto and Friuli Venezia-Giulia, the other real challenge will be the one between Forza Italia and Lega to secure its place as the second party in the coalition. «We need to go back ten years to see the balance of power between Forza Italia and the League reversed», recalls the political scientist Marco Valbruzziwho when it comes to the Democratic Party instead invites everyone to observe the performance of the outgoing governor and dem leader, Stefano Bonaccini, on multiple fronts.
Bonaccini’s preferences
«We will need to keep an eye on the threshold of preferences that Bonaccini will be able to reach also in comparative terms, inside and outside the Democratic Party», underlines Valbruzzi, for which it should be placed around 300 thousand votes in the four regions (a few thousand votes more than the result achieved 5 years ago in the North East with the Democratic Party by Carlo Calenda) the bar that would decree a real success for the two-time governor and national president of the Democratic Party. «At that point the comparison with the result of the leaders Giorgia Meloni would be automatic – adds the political scientist – but also with the preferences taken by Elly Schlein. Certain, the secretary is a candidate in other constituencies, but an estimate will be made… I believe these are two objectives that Bonaccini, beyond the election in Europe, has well in mind.” Also because, as Pombeni underlines, «Bonaccini’s election in Strasbourg is a given, if he had not been elected an earthquake of tenth degree on the Mercalli scale would have arrived… What matters will be the quantity of his consent – highlights the director of Il Mulino – it will be a fairly strong signal of how much the “reformism” of the Emilian left is still alive. Will he emigrate towards Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi, or not? This is a very interesting aspect that we will have to see.”
Bonaccini and Schlein
In the end, for the political scientist, the Democratic Party’s match in the European elections will all be resolved in a single question: «The left maintains its consensus because it continues on the Bonaccini line, which has won the Regionals twice, or because Elly is now there Schlein thundering here and there and Matteo Lepore placing Palestinian flags on the Municipality of Bologna a few days before the vote?”. From this point of view also the result of Bonaccini’s Elisabetta Gualminia Dem MEP running for an encore, will be the litmus test of the direction in which the wind is blowing among PD voters.
The other great unknown however, says Pombeni, “will be understanding whether here in Emilia-Romagna there are spaces for the center too”. Because it is true that for the United States of Europe and Action the first real objective will be to overcome the 4% barrier, but their overall result could become the tipping point in building the centre-left coalition at the next Regional elections. «Who will be able to reach the 10% barthe M5S or the Third Pole bloc, even if divided, will inevitably be the ally that the Democratic Party will have to hold on to”, concludes Valbruzzi.
