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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – The employment trend in Lombardy is positive. In the first quarter of 2024 it not only held but marked growth: the industrial sector recorded an increase in hiring leading to a positive balance (+0.5%), while in the craft sector the increase in incoming flows it is even more marked (3.1%) and, combined with a slowdown in exits (2.4%), leads to a positive balance of +0.7%. The employment data highlight a good state of health in Lombardy manufacturing, despite a slight cyclical decline in production in the first three months of the year, affected above all by external factors. Expectations for the next quarter remain encouraging, where the strengthening of industrial activity at a global level together with the reduction in inflation and the possible decline in interest rates support the confidence of entrepreneurs. As regards the trend of industrial and craft production in Lombardy in the first quarter of this year, according to Unioncamere data, there was a seasonally adjusted economic variation for industry of -0.3% while for crafts the decline is 0.6% with a turnover that decreases accordingly: -0.9% for industry and -1.3% for crafts. In particular, the evolution of the war in Ukraine with a possible new increase in energy costs and the blockage of the Suez Canal weighed on the results. In this context, the performance of the different sectors was heterogeneous: transport vehicles (+4.4% on an annual basis), chemicals (+3.6%), food (+3.5%) and paper showed good growth. -printing (+1.6%); while those suffering a little more are the fashion sector (textiles -7.8%; clothing -5.9%; leather-footwear -3.2%). The steel industry also contracted (-4.6%). The reduction in production levels for mechanics (-2.4%), non-metallic minerals (-2.0%) and rubber-plastics (-1.5%) was less intense. Wood-furniture stable (+0.1%).
Guidesi: «We are optimistic for the next few months»
«Monetary policy and the geopolitical situation do not help our economy, nevertheless, the growing employment data and the stability of production allow us to be extremely optimistic for the coming months. Ours is a solid, mature ecosystem which, thanks to its flexibility, is able to give positive signals in negative contingencies like the ones we are experiencing. Lombardy’s extraordinary nature is confirmed despite the supra-territorial “brakes””, states the Lombardy Region’s Councilor for Economic Development, Guido Guidesi. «The geopolitical conditions are still worrying but for the second quarter of 2024 we are confident in the reduction of rates and the lowering of prices, foreign markets for Lombardy industry remain relevant and in consideration of the albeit slow recovery of world trade we are confident that the numbers can improve », adds Gian Domenico Auricchio, president of Unioncamere Lombardia.
Buzzella: «Entrepreneurs expect a recovery»
«At the beginning of the year, industrial production in Lombardy was affected by a weak global trend and instability in various areas of the world that are crucial for trade. Despite this predictable phase of slowdown, entrepreneurs are cautiously optimistic and see a recovery in the second half of this year driven in particular by the expected cut in interest rates by the ECB, as well as by the fall in energy costs and inflation , but look carefully at the developments of the geopolitical context”, underlines Francesco Buzzella, president of Confindustria Lombardia. «The expectations of Lombardy businesses are high towards a Europe which in the coming months will have to prove itself capable of meeting contemporary challenges, supporting and protecting the entrepreneurial fabric with strong, far-sighted and shared choices. Businesses, particularly manufacturing ones, are the only asset capable of avoiding the economic decline of our continent”, continues Buzzella. «In our opinion, the economic indicators of the artisan sector remain comforting despite the slowdown in domestic demand. We are instead looking with concern at the reverberations of the international crises on the costs of raw materials and energy while we await the steps announced by the ECB on reducing the cost of money, the number one problem for businesses. Craftsmanship is now called upon to face the ESG challenge: it is essential to identify an accompanying path tailored to micro-businesses. Otherwise we risk losing another piece of Made in Italy”, concludes Stefano Fugazza, president of Claai Lombardia.
