The analysis of demand in provincial capitals of Sicily made by Tecnocasa Group reveals the three-room apartment as the most sought after type, followed by the four-room apartment and finally the two-room apartment. The notarial statistical data in 2023 in Italy show a notable collapse in sales (-7%) and mortgages (-26%). Prices drop and there is less and less use of financing due to thesoaring interest rates.
Tecnocasa Report, Sicily: the three-room apartment is the most sought after type in sales
The three-room apartmenttherefore, it is confirmed as already happened six months ago but the two-room apartment is also advancing. The small cut, therefore, sees an increase in the concentration of requests confirming, in part, the return of investors who generally choose this type also in Sicily.
Data from Sicilian cities
| CITY’ | Studios | 2 rooms | 3 rooms | 4 rooms | 5 rooms |
| PALERMO | 1.4% | 16.4% | 46.5% | 28.4% | 7.3% |
| AGRIGENTO | 0.1% | 10.8% | 63.1% | 24.4% | 1.6% |
| CATANIA | 4.0% | 24.4% | 38.5% | 27.4% | 5.7% |
| MESSINA | 1.0% | 14.7% | 47.7% | 30.1% | 6.5% |
| RAGUSA | 0.0% | 6.1% | 43.2% | 46.0% | 4.7% |
| TRAPANI | 0.4% | 16.8% | 45.2% | 35.3% | 2.3% |
The Sicilian provincial capitals they follow the national trend on sales, confirming a high number of requests concentrated in three-room apartments (especially Agrigento and Messina) and in 4 rooms (with Ragusa and Trapani that emerge in particular).
In the segment of two-room apartments the requests in particular are concentrated in capital of Etna with 24.4% of requests received and in the cities of Trapani (16.8%) e Palermo (16.4%).
A good percentage of searches also concern larger properties such as 5 rooms, in particular the larger cities with large tourist influxes such as Palermo (7.3%), Messina (6.5%) e Catania (5.7%).
The requests for studio flat which have become the “ugly duckling” of the real estate market in Italy and Sicily. Nobody wants it anymore, or almost no one. The only percentage of a certain importance concerns the Catania with the 4% of requests.
Source: Analysis of demand for Sicilian cities – Tecnocasa Group
National data
The question in major Italian cities in January 2024 today appears mainly concentrated on the three-room apartment which receives 40.0% of requests. Followed by the two-room apartment with 25.3% and the four-room apartment with 22.4%.
On the contrary, we note a decrease in the concentration of demand on four rooms, as a consequence of the increase in prices that is affecting the metropolises and the partial exhaustion of the push given by the pandemic to the search for larger homes. The trend has now been confirmed for three semesters.
The analysis of demand in regional capitals which are not large cities, confirms the three-room apartment as the most sought after type with 51.6%, followed by the four-room apartment (22.7%) and finally the two-room apartment which collects 21.6%. In these situations, the percentage of requests for small sizes such as one-room and two-room apartments is growing, while the percentage for three-room and five-room apartments is decreasing, confirming the trend also recorded in the metropolises. However, there was an increase in the percentage of requests of 1.2% for the four venues, a typology that is more accessible in these areas thanks to the lower prices. Among the regional capitals, the percentage of requests for three-room apartments is highest in Catanzaro (65.8%) and Venice (63.7%).
Notaries, real estate statistical data: collapse of mortgages, the decline in sales and prices continues
In 2023 in Italy there were “1,030,507 real estate salescompared to 1,108,081 the previous year (down 7%)“ And a reduction in prices: the average value “it is around 154,416 euros, decreasing, compared to 158,074 in 2022 and 155,118 in 2021”. You can read it in the notarial statistical data published today.
Collapse for the overall economic value of the new ones mortgages disbursed: -26%. There is less and less use of financing – noted the notaries – view “the surge in rates”.
This is what is highlighted in the Notarial statistical data for 2023the traditional report relating to the sale of movable and immovable property, mortgages, donations, businesses and companies drawn up and disseminated by Italian notaries.
The focus on Palermo
In Palermo a has been registered overall increase of 2.11% in sales of homes compared to the same period of the previous year, marking a good performance compared to many other Italian cities.
Mortgages for the purchase of a house in the months of January and February 2023 are decreased drastically by -26.54% compared to the same period in 2022.
Same thing for them too surrogates, which dropped by 33% in the first two months of 2023.
The overall picture
The Italian real estate market has shown mixed signals in the first two months of 2023. Although at a national level the decline in sales was 2.7% compared to the same period in 2022, some provinces such as Bari, Bologna, Turin and Palermo they recorded positive changes. In particular, Turin saw an increase in real estate transactions in February compared to January, despite an overall decline in February.
In detailthe decline in home sales it manifested itself mainly in the month of Februarywith a -8.68% compared to February 2022, while January recorded a 5.43% increase compared to the same month of the previous year. The reduction of sales mainly concerns first homes, with a drop of 6% for transactions between private individuals and 24% for purchases from businesses. In reverse, the second home market has seen an increase of 2.82% in transactions between private individuals and 3.37% in purchases from businesses.
Another critical aspect is the decline in mortgages for home purchaseswhich in the first two months of 2023 are decreased by 23.56% compared to the same period in 2022. The decrease was more pronounced in February (-29.3%) than in January (-15.8%). This decline is significant compared to the more moderate reduction in sales, suggesting that more people are buying homes without resorting to bank financing, probably due to rising interest rates.
The decline in mortgages it affected all age groups, with an average decrease of 21.15% in the number of individuals who have taken out a mortgage. The 18-35 age group suffered a reduction of 19.3%, slightly lower than the average, probably thanks to the tax breaks for purchasing a first home, in force until the end of 2023.
The reduction was more marked in the older age groups, reaching a peak of 33.3% between 66 and 75 years.
Analyzing more deeply, the capital disbursed through mortgages recorded a decline of 20.7%, going from 10.2 billion in the first two months of 2022 to 8.1 billion in the same period of 2023. This reduction was less pronounced for mortgages above 500 thousand euros (-8.46%), compared to the lower amount brackets, which saw more significant drops, such as -20.9% for mortgages between 100 thousand and 150 thousand euros and -30.2 % for those between 150 thousand and 200 thousand euros.
In perspective, the National Council of Notaries predicts a decline in the real estate market of 10.7% for 2023 compared to 2022. The most significant reduction is expected in the segment of first houses, with a decrease of 17.1% for the purchases between private individuals and 16.1% for those by businesses.
Purchases of second homes are expected to decline by 2.5% among private individuals and by 7.7% for purchases by businesses.
The mortgage industry is expected to decline 10.1% in 2023, with ECB refinancing rates potentially reaching 4% by December. However, the 18-35 age group could see a 9% increase in loans granted, unlike the other age groups, which will suffer significant drops, with a peak of -44.7% between 66 and 75 years .
Furthermore, the mortgage subrogation market it is destined to reduce by 49.5% compared to 2022.
In conclusion, the Italian real estate market is going through a transition periodwith variations significant at a local level and an overall decline in transactions and mortgages. Tax breaks and financing conditions will continue to play a crucial role in market dynamics in the coming months.
Source: notarial statistical database
