Positive trends also for Portugal, Spain and Greece. Portugal grew by 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in the two-year period; Greece by 2.2% and 2.3%; Spain (which was helped only to get the banking system back on track) by 2.1 and 1.9%
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The European Commission is revising its expectations for economic growth in Italy this year upwards, forecasting a GDP growth of 0.9% (it was +0.7% in previous forecasts). Expectations for 2025 have been reduced and are now for GDP growth of 1.1% (they were 1.2%). This is what emerges in the spring forecasts of the community executive. With growth of 0.9% for the current year, Italy finds itself at the top of the European ranking, overtaking Germany and France, the two main economies.
The data
As for the European Union, growth will stand at 1.0% in 2024, and 0.8% in the euro area. In 2025, GDP will accelerate to 1.6% in the EU and 1.4% in the euro area. After a series of downward cuts – the European Commission has revised previous estimates downwards three times in a row – there is a certain optimism. Even if great caution reigns. The European Commission also expects that the ratio of public debt to Italy’s gross domestic product, after 137.3% in 2023, will rise to 138.6% in 2024 and 141.7% in 2025. As regards the the ratio of the deficit to Italy’s gross domestic product, after 7.4% in 2023, will fall to 4.4% in 2024, to rise again to 4.7% in 2025. As for inflation, however, it is expected in 2024 at 1.6%, while it is expected to settle at 1.9% in 2025.
see also
Istat: the Italian economy is growing but poverty is increasing
Eurostat estimates
“We saw Eurostat’s estimates for the first quarter and they were slightly above expectations – recalled yesterday the European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni -. This means that the acceleration of economic activity that we expected in the winter economic forecasts is having place”. With these premises, apart from variations for individual countries, it is likely that the executive’s forecasts will not reserve any major surprises. Positive trends for Portugal, Spain and Greece. Portugal grew by 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in the two-year period; Greece by 2.2% and 2.3%; Spain (which was helped only to get the banking system back on track) by 2.1 and 1.9%. As for Germany, the European Commission predicts that in 2024 the German economy will not grow more than 0.1%, while in 2025 it will grow by 1%, the lowest level on the continent. For France, the EU Commission forecasts growth of 0.7% this year. Istat underlines that “the stagnation of labor productivity is one of the elements that has characterized the weak trend in GDP in volume over the last twenty years and the consequent widening of the growth gap with the other main EU economies.
