Lombardy economy, stagnant growth confirmed in 2024. April projections see GDP at +1.2%, consumption at +0.8% and investments at +2%. In the province of Cremona, employment soars (+6%), while exports collapse (-6%).
Lombard economy
The Lombard economy is faced with a stagnant growth in 2024, with several indicators showing a downward trend. According to forecasts, GDP should record a slight rise to +1.2%, confirming a substantial slowdown in regional economic activity. These are some of the data provided by CNA Lombardy in the Third Focus on the performance of theregional economycreated by Sintesi Study Center.
Also consumption and investments show a negative trend, with a expected growth of 0.8% for consumption in 2024, the worst figure in the last four years. The investments they would only increase of 2%, also below expectations.
“The data confirms expectations. We are in a situation of difficulty, of limited growth – comments the President of CNA Lombardia Giovanni Bozzini -. The regional economy is holding up, but is turning around much less than it could in a more stable macroeconomic context.”
Export
Not even encouraging data from exports, one of the sectors most penalized in the last period also by the international situation. In 2023, in fact, Lombardy recorded almost stable growth with +0.8% for a total of 163 thousand million euros. The positive trend of agri-food (+7.1%), mechanics (+5.8%) e fashion system (+4.1%) counterbalances the decline in other sectors, particularly evident in metallurgy (-7%), in rubber-plastic chemistry (-4.8%) and in home system (-1.4%). This is the situation at provincial level: Monza Brianza (+7.4%), Sondrio (+7.2%) and Lodi (+5.4%) stand out; followed by Varese (+3.7%), Bergamo (+3.4%) and Milan (+3.3%). Pavia (+0.6%) and Lecco (+0%) are essentially at a standstill. On the other hand, Mantua (-10.8%), Brescia (-7%), Cremona (-6%) and Como (-1.7%).
“We pay still high rates and too many geopolitical unknowns: the wars at the gates of Europe and in the Near East are making themselves felt – continues the Secretary of CNA Lombardia, Stefano Binda -. Let us remember that, beyond specific sectors driven by conflicts, a good economy needs good international relations and stability conducive to the investment horizon. If capital must be able to be patient to invest in sustainable growth, relations must be stable, people confident, rules certain.”
Inflation
Good news comes, however, from inflation which in the first three months of 2024, recorded a +1%compared to +8.8% recorded in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the price dynamics are driven by accommodation and catering services (+3.6%), while the most significant decline concerns prices for housing, water, energy (-9.3%).
“The inflation figure is approaching one greater stability, but we realize that families are suffering from a situation of difficulty and mistrust – continues Bozzini -. Also for this reason we are involved in the renewal of regional collective labor agreements”.
On the front of businesses, 2024 started positively, at the rate of a slight increase in the number of active ones. As of March 31, 2024, a growth of over 1600 companies was observed compared to December 2023. A growth of almost 2,800 companies was also observed compared to the end of 2019 (+0.3%): this positive trend is attributable solely to construction and the galaxy of services. From a provincial point of view, the best results (March 2023-March 2024) were obtained by Milan (+1.4%), Monza and Brianza (+0.6%), Lodi (+0.5%), Lecco ( +0.5%) and Como (+0.4%). Mantua (-1.4%), Brescia (-1%), lose ground Cremona (-0.8%), Sondrio (-0.6%), Pavia (-0.4%), Varese (-0.4%) and Bergamo (-0.3%).
If total businesses are increasing between December 2023 and March 2024, for artisan businesses the situation remains complicated, so much so that the drastic decline that began in 2021 continues. In this period, in fact, 650 companies have closed in the region. Compared to the end of 2019, the reduction is 4.1%. In particular, we note the decline in artisan businesses in manufacturing (-5,842 companies); On the other hand, it holds craftsmanship in personal services. The provinces of Brescia (-3.1%), Mantua (-1.5%), Pavia (-0.4%), Sondrio (-0.4%) are most affected by the decline in the March 2023-March 2024 trend. %), Varese (-0.4%). Almost unchanged Cremona (-0.2%)Bergamo (-0.2%), Milan (+0.1%) and Como (+0%), while Lodi (+0.8%), Monza Brianza (+0.6%9 and Lecco (+ 0.4%).
The occupation
However, the positive note relating to the fourth quarter of 2023 for the Lombardy economy is relative to employment, which records an increase in the number of over 76,000 employed (+1.7%) compared to 2022. Specifically, the increase in employment only concerns trade-hotels-catering (+4.7%) and other services (+ 3.3%), while what weighs on the overall figure is above all the decline in employment in industry (-2%, equal to 23 thousand fewer employed). In the territories the situation is rather heterogeneous with the plus sign dominating: very good Cremona (+6%), Varese (+4.1%), Como (+2.8%) and Monza and Brianza (+2.7%). Followed by Lecco (+1.5%), Milan (+1.4%), Pavia (+1.4%), Brescia (+1.2%), Bergamo (+0.5%). Slight minus sign for Mantua (-0.4%), Lodi (-0.2%) and Sondrio (-0.2%).
“Lombardy is tenaciously working. We ensure that it is quality work and marked by the central theme of the skills required by the labor market – states Bozzini -. In our discussions with the candidates for the European elections we are asking to activate migratory corridors based on the principle of competence and also on-site training in the countries of origin, with which to build relationships based on the exchange of culture, knowledge, innovation and training”.
Access to credit
Instead, it ends with a theme that is very close to the hearts of businesses, both artisan and otherwise. That is to say access to credit. In the whole of 2023, the total loans to companies in Lombardy decreased by 4.5%: the decline particularly concerns small-sized companies (-9.8%). With reference to interest rates, in February 2024 the average rate applied to new loans up to 1 million euros reached 5.81% (+1.42 points in one year); however, in relation to loans exceeding 1 million euros, the average rate stood at 5% (+1.96 points in twelve months). For the territories, everyone is suffering the most from the situation: Varese (-10.9%), followed by Sondrio (-10.4%), Brescia (-10.3%), Pavia (-8.5%), Bergamo ( -8.5%), Como (-8.4%), Lodi (-6.8%), Lecco (-5.9%), Cremona (-5.8%)Monza and Brianza (-3.2%), Milan (-1.7%) and Mantua (-1.1%).
“We have the feeling that for the banking and financial world the dynamics of turnover and profit is increasingly separated from local businesses – observes Stefano Binda -. It’s a risky slope, from which we all emerge poorer. If we want finance to fuel widespread and widespread economic and social development, we need credit institutions to share a “metric” oriented towards micro and small businesses also on the topic of environmental, social and governance sustainability. Otherwise it won’t be sustainability, but only a further credit crunch.”
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