The population of the province of Parma as of 1 January 2024 recorded the highest increase since 2011 with a population of 458,924setting a new historical record in the number of residents, which has never been so high.
The data is relevant 4,289 more residents than 2023 (+0.94%); a particularly significant growth because it fits into a general demographic framework of demographic difficulty: the overall Italian population has decreased since 2015, although to a lesser extent than in previous years, and the Emilia-Romagna region has increased in the last year (+0.40 % according to the provisional data of the demographic balance as of 12-31-2023), one of the few regions, together with Lombardy and Trentino-Alto Adige, to record significant increases.
The population of the province of Parma has grown in the medium-long term at a higher rate than in the other provinces of Emilia-Romagna: residents in the province of Parma in the 10 years from 2014 to 2023 increased by +2.3%while in second place we find the province of Rimini with +1.9% and in third place Bologna with +1.7 (data from the regional survey).
Parma’s growth is even more marked if we compare the capitals. The increase in the population of the province is due, as has been the case for many years, above all to positive migratory balance (fewer canceled members in municipal registers, both Italian and foreign), which in 2023 amounted to +4,636 people.
There were 3,171 people born in 2023, marking a decrease of -53 compared to the previous year. Compared to 2010, the highest year in the historical series, when there were 4,241 births, 1,070 fewer births were recorded in the last year.
The average number of children per woman in the province of Parma reached its maximum in 2010 (1.54 children per woman) and in the last pre-Covid years it had reached 1.34. In 2023 this value has further decreased to 1.26 children per woman. This situation is not specific only to the territory, at a regional and Italian level the number of children per woman in 2023 was even lower, 1.22 and 1.20 respectively.
Parma city is growing at a faster rate than the provincial average (+1.5%, +3,033 people), exceeding 200 thousand residents (201,464 to be precise). Parma is now clearly the second most populous municipality in the region after Bologna.
The rest of the territory is also increasing, although at a slower speed (+0.5%, +1,256 people). The municipality that grows the most in percentage is Calestano (+2.1%, equal to +43 residents), followed by Roccabianca (+1.8%, +51 people) and Parma.
Tizzano Val Parma ranks fourth in the province for percentage growth (+1.5%, +32 people), and this is particularly remarkable, since Tizzano is part of the mountain area, which has been decreasing for many years.
Other municipalities in the mountain area that have grown in the last year are Varsi (+0.6%, +7 residents), Borgo Val di Taro (+0.3%, +17 residents), Valmozzola (+0.2%, +1 resident) and Corniglio (+0.1%, +1 resident).
These are small numbers in absolute value, but they take on a certain value in light of a prospect of depopulation that seemed irreversible, observes the Province.
The largest population decreases were recorded in Tornolo (-2.6%, -24 residents), Palanzano (-2.1%, -22 residents) and Monchio delle Corti (-2.0%, -17 residents).
The foreign population is growing again with the data of 1 January 2024 after last year’s decline, well exceeding 70 thousand peopleto be precise 70,675 residents, 15.4% of the total provincial population.
The increase was 1,618 people compared to the previous year (+2.4%), a significant percentage growth, but still decidedly lower than those which had occurred from 1995 to 2009, when the increase had remained constantly above the 10%, and in a year it had even exceeded 20%.
The decrease in the influx of new foreign residents has coincided with the slowdown in overall population growth.
The municipality in which foreigners have increased in greatest percentage is Tizzano val Parma (+9.9%, +32 residents), which in fact we have seen are among those where the overall population is growing the most. In second place we find Polesine Zibello (+9.7%, +43 residents) and then Bore (+9.6, +5 residents), growing as an overall population after 10 years of consecutive declines. Next we find Bedonia (+9.2 + 22 residents), and then Valmozzola (+7.7%, +3 residents).
Apart from Polesine Zibello, these municipalities all belong to the mountain area. This suggests that the influx of foreigners in the mountain municipalities is not an episodic fact, also considering that for some years there have been significant increases in foreigners in the mountain municipalities, perhaps attracted by the lower cost of living, and in particular by that of housing. , compared to larger urban centers.
The highest incidence of foreigners on the total population is found in the municipalities of Langhirano (22.1%), Calestano (21.6%) and Parma (18%). Langhirano and Calestano have been at the top of the ranking for seven consecutive years now.
The lowest percentages are in Albareto (4.4%), Tornolo (4.3%) and Monchio delle Corti (3.5%).
The first three nationalities present are Romanian, Albanian and Moldavian, the last two, however, decreasing compared to the previous year. Like last year, among the main nationalities present, the one that had the highest percentage growth was the Ukrainian one (+11.6%), followed by the Tunisian one (+10%) and the Nigerian one (+5%).
The demographic structure implies various consequences on services. Looking at the school age groups of the population, the Province notes that in the last year the reference number for high school (14-18 years) grows significantly, reaching 21,775 children (+2.7%, +570 children).
It is a trend that has been ongoing for several years now and has led this age group to have a growth of 18.8% since 2014 (+3,449 children).
Furthermore, somewhat surprisingly, the age group attending nursery schools is growing (+0.9%, +86 children), after a decline that lasted 12 years. The other school age groups decreased in 2024 compared to the previous year: – nursery school, age 3-5 (-2%, -214 children), primary school (or elementary), age 6- 10 (-0.6%, -122 children), middle school, ages 11-13 (-1.4%, -188 children).
The elderly population is growing in all age groups considered. And this comes with some good news: in the province of Parma, life expectancy at birth in 2023, with a value of 83.9 years, exceeded the pre-Covid levels of the year 2019.
Considering the evolution of life expectancy at birth in the long term, we are faced with an increase that is defined as extraordinary: in 1992 life expectancy at age 0 in the province of Parma was 77.2 years, in 2023 we have 6.7 years more, in Emilia-Romagna in the same period we gained 6.1 years and in Italy 5 ,9.
Furthermore, life expectancy at birth in the area in 2023 was almost 10 months higher than the average for Italy.
This fundamental indicator had drastically decreased in 2020, the initial year of the pandemic, and then rose again in the following years, and with the latest data of 2023, approximately 2 and a half years of life have been regained compared to 2020.
At 65 years of age, people residing in the province of Parma have an average further life expectancy of 21.4 years, women 22.8 years and men 20.1.
Returning to the age groups of the elderly, the greatest increase in percentage compared to the previous year occurs in the 75 and over age group which reaches 57,963 people (+2%, +1,131 residents), those who we could now define as “elderly in the strict sense”, given the improvement in physical and cognitive fitness currently found in the elderly population.
But the age group of 65 and over also increases significantly compared to 2023 (+1.2%, +1,267 people) reaching the number of 107,094: now almost one person in 4 of our population is 65 years of age or older, precisely the 23rd, 3% of the total.
Elderly people aged 80 and over are those who are growing the least in the 3 highest groups considered (+0.5%, +168 residents), for a total of 36,364 people.
If in 2014 the age range of those who can be considered the youngest workers (aged 25-44 years) was practically the same (precisely 99.5%) as that of the oldest workers (45-64 years), in 2024 the 25-44 range represents only 77.8% of the 45-64 range.
Lastly, those over centenarians (specifically aged 100 years and over) reached 221 as of 1 January 2024 (+15 compared to the previous year), with a clear female prevalence, 31 men and 190 women.
Demographic decline in active workers: limited contraction in Parma thanks to foreigners
April 13, 2024
In summary, the Province observes, it is above all the arrival of new residents that can guarantee the maintenance of the population level, since the current age structure, alone, is destined to produce a constantly negative natural balance.
It is therefore essential that the area retains the attractiveness that has distinguished it in all these years, with an economy that overall has resisted the crises well and a high level of services, as attested in the various rankings that compare the Italian provinces.
However, even assuming the maintenance of overall demographic levels, the internal change in the various age groups will pose significant problems: in 2050 we will have more than one “elderly” (in this case aged 65 and over) for every three people, and this is a fact which, if not well governed, will have consequences of great impact on society as a whole. In fact, the aging of the population poses various questions to policy makers, starting from the easily foreseeable increase in health and care costs, but not only.
Investing in technological innovation and training, and in particular digital innovation, even in old age, thus cultivating a culture of active aging among the elderly and enhancing their role in society, helping them to emerge from the social isolation often determined by increasingly smaller and fragmented families. In summary, the development of what the law already defines as “digital citizenship” will increasingly become a strategic development factor.
Tags: Parma foreigners capital driving population increase record Life expectancy growing
