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The advantage over the centre-right remains large, but for a few days a latent concern has been spreading within the Pd house in Modena. As is known, in view of the June vote, the Democratic Party has organized a very broad front to avoid the run-off roulette. Arithmetically there is no doubt that the coalition that goes from Action to the 5 Stars, passing through the Greens and the Left, has the numbers to bring home over 50% of the votes, but in politics 1 plus 1 does not always equal two.
The fear of PD mayoral candidate Massimo Mezzetti is that in this case the sum is 1.5 and therefore, despite the large grouping, the objective of victory in the first round will not be achieved.
Four aspects weigh heavily: a possible overestimation of Action, the continuous frictions with Muzzarelli which in the long run could induce part of the electorate to opt for abstention, the unexpected activism of the centre-right candidate Luca Negrini (thrown into the fray by Fdi as a sacrificial lamb, but far from willing to accept this role) and, above all, the emptying of the 5 Star Movement, incorporated into the PD System with a cold merger.
Calenda’s party in this pre-election phase stood out for its great activism. Thanks to the undoubted abilities and long experience of Commissioner Paolo Zanca, Action, in addition to having stepped on the toes of its main ally, the latest sensational case is that of Rotella, has certainly brought home much more than its potential percentage value, but the litmus test could be unwelcome. If it were to bring a dowry below 5%, it would be a cold shower for Action and, above all, it would complicate the accounts in the Dem house.
Much has now been said about the tense relationship between Muzzarelli and Mezzetti. The former does not want to relinquish the scepter, while the latter is doing everything to mark a discontinuity, at least formally, with the outgoing council. A game of roles that is partly artfully constructed but which could get out of hand for the two directly involved and lead to a negative effect on the relevant electorate.
Moreover, the positive surprise represented by the young centre-right candidate must also be considered, who, having shaken off the Melonian flame, is breaking many of the bogus patterns of the opposition candidates of the past. An approach that is creating some thoughts on the centre-left: the game of continuing to delegitimize Negrini by relegating him to a simple ‘workshop man’ or ‘boatman’s man’, also given the senator’s absence from the electoral campaign unlike his colleague Daniela Dondi, not holds and we need to take action with more sophisticated weapons.
Finally the great chapter of the 5 Star Movement. The Democratic Party presented the alliance with Conte’s party as a success, but in reality the agreement in the first round could turn out to be a boomerang. How attractive will a systemic M5S allied with the party expressing local power be to the Modena Grillino electorate? The impression is that the Dems have put a semi-empty box at home and that – beyond the symbol – the domesticated and incorporated Movement is not worth half of the rebellious one of the origins. Negative reflections that affect the M5S itself internally, Aesop’s fable of the wolf and the dog teaches: isn’t it better to eat little but be free than to be fattened but in chains?
Giuseppe Leonelli
Tags: Vote Modena alliance Democratic Party emptied M5S Mezzetti fears runoff Punto
