Italian families resume planning the purchase of a new home, in fact, confidence is growing in the fact that mortgage interest rates will fall in the coming months. In 2024, approximately 710 thousand real estate sales will take place, a number substantially in line with the previous year’s levels. This is what emerges from the latest edition of the Fimaa-Confcommercio survey on the residential real estate market, updated to data for the first quarter of 2024.
The report – created by the FIMAA Research Office, coordinated by Andrea Oliva – highlights in particular that, although housing exchanges recorded a negative trend in the last three quarters of 2023, the gap has progressively improved. Most real estate operators FIMAA – Italian Federation of business brokers, member of Confcommercio-Imprese per l’Italia – a reversal of the trend is expected as early as the next quarter. On the other hand, only 25% of those interviewed are convinced that it will suffer a further decline, a percentage clearly lower than the findings of a year ago, at the time it was in fact over 60%.
Again according to over 60% of real estate agents, the prices of properties sold will record an average increase of 2.2%. However, the market will travel at two speeds, confirming the trend that has already been recorded in 2023. In the previous year, in fact, probably due to the news of energy adaptation of the housing stock, the prices of existing homes increased by only 0.4 nominal %, new homes instead benefited from +5.6%.
Above all, they are pushing the market expectations on the decline in mortgage rates (almost 50% of answers), and the possibilities of obtaining good incomes in certain contexts by renting homes (32.5%). Around 10% aim to own a green home to save on management costs, while another 7.2% expect a future price increase. Among other factors (1%), there is in particular the desire to own a second home in a tourist location.
Among the weak points of the market in the opinion of the operators interviewed, cin particular the high restructuring costs (31.4%); low average salaries (23.9%); concerns about the taxes introduced by the latest budget law or about the announced revision of estimates, and those about regulatory aspects such as energy efficiency (22.2%); the instability of international geo-political scenarios (19.5%). The other reasons collect 2.9% of responses, among these are in particular concerns about the still high mortgage rates and inflation levels.
The rental market
The report also analyzes the rental market, nIn 2023 the number of new residential rental contracts decreased compared to the previous year (-1.6%), while rents continued the expansion trend (+4.4%). According to the expectations formulated by FIMAA real estate agents for the second quarter of 2024, the demand for rental apartments will be very strong (68.5% of those interviewed), but the supply may not keep up. The majority of agents (47.6%) in fact believe that it will remain at the levels of the previous year, but the percentage of those who believe there will be a further reduction is not much lower (46.4%). The result is a number of new contracts that maintains the same percentages of decrease highlighted in 2023 (between 2 and 3% less), and rents still growing by 5%.
“Today we need tools to support a market that attributes greater value to efficient residential properties compared to non-efficient ones – comments Santino Taverna, national president of FIMAA. – In our country, there are approximately 12 million permanently inhabited residential units that require energy requalification interventions: there is a need for greater graduality in the implementation times of the European directive on “green homes”. In addition to building bonuses, concrete economic support is needed for the benefit of families and citizens, especially for the less well-off”.
“The report highlights the first signs of a reduction in homes on offer for sale – underlines Andrea Oliva, coordinator of the FIMAA Research Office. – It is difficult, in particular, to find homes to rent in large cities and tourist centres, or new buildings at the right price. Furthermore, the prices of new homes have grown by 19% since the beginning of 2021, thanks to inflation and international geo-political tensions”.
