MILAN – Price lists are moving slightly down after a day without any particular insights on the Asian stock markets, which improved during the session, however closing in positive territory. Meanwhile, investors are thinking about a rate path that seems increasingly decoupled between the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other banks.
As noted by Bloomberg, several Washington officials said they were waiting for clearer indications that inflation was cooling before moving on to lowering interest rates. In short, operators are betting that rates will drop by 3 points over the next nine months, but on the start of the cycle Michelle Bowman said he sees a number of upside risks to the inflation outlook.
As regards the ECB, the member of the Governing Council Olli Rehn, considers investors’ expectations for two more monetary easings during the year to be “reasonable”, stating in an interview with the American financial agency that, despite having to guarantee the return of inflation to 2%, the ECB should excessively slow down activity economical. Elsewhere again, as in Australiawith inflation rising surprisingly for the third month in a row, traders have even fueled bets for a rate hike.
Returning to the markets, closing on a good rise this morning Tokyo which gained more than 1% thanks to chip stocks.
1.40pm
Europe down more than halfway through the session
The European stock markets weakened in the middle of the session with Milan (-0.3% Ftse Mib at 33,608 points), Paris (-0.56%) and Madrid (-0.12%) falling. Frankfurt is still holding its ground, although it has dropped to a marginal +0.1 percent along with London (+0.05%). The Old Continent area index, the Stoxx 600, falls below parity with the real estate and financial sectors in decline while the technological ones remain afloat. And the trend is also marked by uncertainty for futures on Wall Street. The market is looking at core PCE, the reference price indicator for the Fed, expected to slow and scheduled for Friday. But also in the first round of the political elections in France on Sunday, which have already spread so much uncertainty.
In this context, the moves that central banks will implement in the near future remain under scrutiny. Opinions are different. Among the latest those from the Finnish Rehn who indicated that two more rate cuts are expected to be reasonable this year.
The spread between BTP and Bund has changed little at 150.5 points as well as the yield on the Italian ten-year bond at 3.94%. For commodities, the rise in oil is confirmed with the WTI rising to 81.6 dollars (+0.95 %) and Brent approaching 86 dollars (+0.8%). Gas is above 35 euros per megawatt hour with TTF contracts for July at +0.64%.
The euro is still weak against the dollar with which it trades at 1.0686.
1.01pm
Labriola: “Optimistic about the new Mef offer for Sparkle”
“I’ve always said I’m optimistic.” This was stated by Tim’s CEO, Pietro Labriola, speaking to journalists who ask about the possible arrival of a new offer from the Ministry of Economy for Sparkle, the submarine cable company, upon his arrival at the Telco event for Italy . To a question about the timing for the sale of 3% of Inwit, Labriola replies: “we have always been quick” while on the conversion of savings shares and whether it is still planned he says: “let’s take one step at a time”.
12:05
Milan resets the increase
The Milan Stock Exchange cancels the rise and reaches parity in the middle of the day. The Ftse Mib moves on a marginal -0.02% at 33,717 points. Frankfurt, however, continues in the green (0.66%). Paris is also cautious (+0.14%).
The spread drops by more than one basis point. The difference between BTP and Bund is at 150.5 points while yields rise. The Italian ten-year is at 3.94% (+2 basis points).
Saipem still in the lead (+4.2%) with Jefferies raising its target price confirming the buy. Eni was also positive (+0.91%). Followed by Bper (+0.9%) and Tim (+0.76%). On the other hand, sales on Ferrari (-1.08%), Interpump (-1.06%).
11:36
UIF, reports of suspicious transactions drop
Reports of suspicious financial transactions are decreasing, after the “significant growth” of recent years, and among these there is a “strong reduction” in those relating to the transfer of tax credits: this is what emerges from the 2023 report of the Financial Information Unit of the Bank of Italy. Last year, the Unit received 150,418 reports of suspicious transactions, 5,008 fewer than in 2022 (-3.2%). Those on the transfer of credits fell from 2,816 to 743, “also due to the effect of regulatory changes that, starting from 2021, have affected the transferability of tax credits generated by construction interventions”.
11.05am
Asian stock markets, closings on the rise with tech
Asian stocks closed higher, led by the tech sector, as Nvidia and the Nasdaq rebounded on Wall Street. However, investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over the US economy and ahead of Friday’s key PCE inflation data, while Hong Kong was held back by geopolitical concerns. In Tokyo, the Nikkei rose 1.26% to 39,667.07 points and the Topix rose 0.56% to 2,802.95 points. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index rose 0.32% to 18,081 points, with the momentum generated by Beijing’s approval of new online video games tempered by concerns over China’s economic recovery. Fears of escalating international tensions were heightened after Canadian authorities announced plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles and batteries produced in China, following the US and EU. In mainland China, Shanghai rose 0.76% to 2,972.53 and Shenzhen 1.55% to 8,987. The Kospi in Seoul also rose 0.64% to 2,792.07, while Sydney fell 0.71% to 2,792.07 after inflation rose 4% on an annual basis in May, its highest level in more than six months.
10.36am
Tech keeps Europe going
The European stock markets follow in the wake of Asia and appear to be recovering with the area index, the Stoxx 600, up by half a point. Technological ones stand out, followed by industrialists and real estate. Frankfurt, which started quietly, is the best place with the Dax rising by 1%. No effect from the Gfk index which measures consumer confidence in Germany, worse than estimates in July. Milan (+0.27%) is more cautious, again with the evidence of Saipem and Tim, and Paris (+0.45%). Madrid recorded a +0.37% while London recorded a +0.5%. The spread confirms little change. The spread between BTPs and Bunds is 150.8 points with the yield on the Italian 10-year bond rising by one basis point to 3.93%. As for commodities, oil is rising slightly with WTI above 81 dollars a barrel (+0.35%) and Brent above 85 dollars (+0.18%). Gas rises and exceeds 35 euros per megawatt hour. Ttf contracts for July in Amsterdam recorded +0.92%. Finally, for exchange rates, the euro is weak against the dollar with which it trades at 1.0695.
09:30
Chinese stock markets close at highs
Chinese stock markets close trading with solid gains, around intraday highs: the Shanghai Composite index rises by 0.76%, to 2,972.53 points, while that of Shenzhen marks a rebound of 2.02%, to 1,641 ,47.
09:29
Milan starts off on a positive note
The Milan Stock Exchange opens on the rise with the Ftse Mib index advancing by 0.26% to 33,794 points, in line with the other European markets. Investors remain cautious awaiting the American PCE inflation data, a special observation by the Fed to decide on monetary policy moves, which will be published on Friday and the political elections in France which will be held on Sunday 30 June and 7 July for the renewal of the National Assembly. The financial companies push on the list, Unicredit +0.8%, Intesa +0.78%, Mps +0.79%, Bper +0.85%. Mediobanca bucked the trend at -0.07%. Among industrial stocks: Leonardo, after yesterday’s declines, rises by 0.65%, Stmicroelectronics +0.11%. Pirelli -0.39% and Stellantis -0.49%. Telecom Italia +1.11%. Among the increases were energy stocks: Eni +0.21%, Enel +0.14%.
08:51
Consumer confidence drops surprisingly in Germany
Consumer morale in Germany is set to fall slightly in July after four months of consecutive increases, with rising inflation in May increasing feelings of uncertainty, according to the GfK barometer released today. The institute forecasts an index of -21.8 points in July, down 0.8 points compared to the June value. Expectations were for a figure of -19.4. “The slightly higher inflation rate in the country in May”, equal to 2.4%, or 0.2 points higher than in April, “is giving rise to greater uncertainty among consumers, which is also reflected in the increase in the propensity to save”, observed GfK expert Rolf Burkl. The upward trend in income expectations has also stopped, the institute notes.
08:50
The spread opens with little movement
The spread between ten-year BTPs and their German Bund counterparts opens at 151 points, little changed compared to yesterday’s closing at 152. The yield is stable at 3.928%.
08:48
Good closing for Tokyo
Japanese stocks closed higher, led by chip and other electronics stocks, as a weak yen fueled earnings growth expectations. Signs of economic weakness in the United States have also fueled hopes of potential rate cuts by the Fed. The Nikkei index rose by 1.3% to 39,667.07 points. Investors are focusing on economic data and comments from Japanese authorities on the recent depreciation of the yen. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose 2.5 basis points to 1.020%.
08:04
Asian stocks improve during the session
Asian stock markets rise after a declining opening in the wake of Wall Street. The top Chinese market remains weak: in Shanghai the composite index drops by 0.15%. The Shenzhen SZSE composite index gained 0.63%. Tokyo was the driving force with the Nikkei index rising by 1.37%. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong marks +0.40%. Seoul’s Kospi was also positive at +0.54%.
08:03
Euro little moved
The euro showed little movement this morning on the currency markets: the single European currency is trading at 1.0705 dollars with a drop of 0.08% and at 171.0600 yen with a drop of 0.02%.
