In May 2024, it is estimated that the national consumer price index for the entire community (NIC), including tobacco, will increase by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 0.8% on an annual basis ( as in the previous month), confirming the preliminary estimate.
The stability of inflation underlies contrasting trends in various expenditure aggregates: the prices of processed food goods (from +2.5% to +1.8%) and of services relating to transport (from +2.7%) are slowing down. to +2.4%) and Housing-related Services (from +2.8% to +2.6%); on the other hand, the decline in the prices of unregulated energy attenuates (from -13.9% to -13.5%) and that of regulated ones stops (from -1.3% to +0.7%) and accelerates slightly the prices of recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +3.8% to +4.3%).
In the month of May, “underlying inflation”, net of energy and fresh food, decelerates, as does that net of energy goods alone (both from +2.1% to +2.0%).
The trend trend in the prices of goods recorded a slightly larger decline (from -0.6% to -0.9%) and that of services was stable (at +2.9%), determining an increase in the inflationary differential between the services and goods sectors (+3.8 percentage points, from +3.5 in April).
The prices of food, household and personal care goods are slowing down on a trend basis (from +2.3% to +1.8%), as are those of high-frequency purchasing products (from +2.6% to April % at +2.5%).
The cyclical increase in the general index mostly reflects the growth in prices of regulated energy goods (+1.9%), recreational, cultural and personal care services (+1.5%) and Unprocessed food (+1.4%). The effects of these increases were only partially offset by the decrease in the prices of non-regulated energy goods (-1.1%) and durable goods (-0.5%).
The acquired inflation for 2024 is equal to +0.8% for the general index and +1.8% for the underlying component.
The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 0.8 on an annual basis (from +0.9% in April), confirming the preliminary estimate.
The national consumer price index for families of workers and employees (FOI), net of tobacco, recorded a change of 0.2% on a monthly basis and 0.8 on an annual basis.
The comment
In May inflation remained at the same level as April (+0.8%). The stabilization of the growth rate is mainly due to the easing of tensions on the prices of processed food goods (+1.8% from +2.5% in April) and of some types of services (transport and housing-related) , the effects of which compensate for the weakening of deflationary pressures coming from the energy sector, where prices show a sharply rising trend profile, although remaining at largely negative values (-11.6% from -12.1%). The dynamics of the “shopping cart” prices on an annual basis continues to decline (+1.8% from +2.3%), as does underlying inflation, which stands at +2.0% (from +2.1%).
