The long-awaited rate cut, after ten months of calm, is still a maximum of one or two months away, unless there is a sensational about-face. Yet something is already moving, to the joy, so to speak, of those who have a mortgage. In March, in fact, the interest rates on loans disbursed during the month to families for the purchase of homes including ancillary costs stood at 4.21% from 4.31 in February. The share of these loans with an initial rate determination period of up to one year, Bank of Italy clarified, was 14% (17% in the previous month).
As a result, the interest rates on new loans to non-financial companies were equal to 5.26% (5.34 in the previous month), those for amounts up to 1 million euros were equal to 5.73%, while the rates on new loans for amounts exceeding this threshold stood at 4.95%. Finally, the lending rates on all outstanding deposits were equal to 1.04% (1.02 in the previous month). Consumers can only breathe a sigh of relief.
«Well, the decline in rates that began in December continues in March» commented Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers Union. In short, a breath of fresh air is coming for families with variable rate mortgages. Considering the amount and average duration of a mortgage, the drop in rates means that the installment, for those who have now taken out a variable rate mortgage, drops, compared to the peak of November 2023, by 56 euros per month, equal to annual savings of 672 euros.
Now all eyes are on the ECB (led by Christine Lagarde in the photo) and on the June board. The signs are all there. At the meeting of 10 and 11 April of the monetary directorate it was in fact considered «plausible that the Council will be in a position to start easing the monetary restriction at the June meeting, if further elements received by then confirm the medium-term outlook on inflation indicated in March estimates”, report the minutes of the meeting, further cementing the prospect of a first rate cut by the ECB at the board of 6 June. Minutes reiterate that “important new data, including updated technician forecasts, will be published for the June meeting, allowing the Governing Council to make a broader assessment” of the picture.
