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The adverse weather conditions in Brazil but also the euro-dollar exchange rate could weigh heavily on Italian coffee consumers. In fact, with each increase in price, between the production crisis and increasingly prohibitive transport costs for the raw material, the cup of coffee that fellow countrymen gulp down at the bar becomes increasingly saltier. There are now few cities where you pay less than 1 euro for the daily ritual at the start of the day. And on average the price has now reached 1.20 euros according to the latest Mimit data reworked by Assoutenti.
The “perfect storm”
But importers and roasters are raising a further alarm: the “perfect storm” is unleashing on prices. Therefore, further price increases are on the horizon and there is now very little way to go to reach 2 euros per cup. Altoga, the national association of roasters, coffee importers and food wholesalers adhering to Federgrossisti-Confcommercio, explains that in the last 6 months the stock market prices of Robusta coffee have practically doubled: they have recorded an increase of over 90% (from 2,200 to 4,195 dollars per ton), and those of the Arabica variety by 55% (from 155.25 to 239.85 cents per pound).
The causes
But why this surge? A strong contraction in supply from Vietnam was affected by the adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the unfavorable exchange rate due to the strengthening of the dollar against the euro, which affected the cost of coffee by up to +4% in recent months and finally the need to avoid crossing the Red Sea with consequent increase in travel times and costs. Factors which, overall, impact coffee import costs by up to 50% more than six months ago. And what is the effect on “Mr. Mario” who goes to the bar in the morning to get his coffee? Espresso coffee has already undergone continuous price increases in recent years – calculates Assoutenti – to the point that today the average price officially recorded by Mimit of a cup consumed at the bar stands at 1.18 euros in the main Italian cities. Just three years ago, in 2021, the average cost of espresso was 1.03 euros: this means that Italians have already suffered an increase of 14.9%.
Where it costs more
Among the main cities, Bolzano is the one that holds the record for the expensive coffee at the bar, with an average price of 1.38 euros per cup, followed by Trento (1.31 euros) while Catanzaro, with an average of 0.99 euro, is the cheapest city, thus even surpassing Naples (1.05 euro). – analyzes Assoutenti – However, if we compare today’s price lists with those in force in 2021, we discover that the province that has suffered the greatest price increases is Pescara, with the average price rising from 1 euro to 1.28 euros and an increase in +28%, followed by Bari with +24.4%. «We fear that the rises in coffee prices could lead to price increases in the coming weeks both for drinks at bars (coffee, cappuccino, etc.) and for powdered coffee sold in supermarkets. – states the president Gabriele Melluso – Even a few cents of increase would cause a blow to consumers’ pockets, considering that in Italy around 6 billion coffees are served in public places per year for an espresso turnover of around 7 billions of euros per year.”
