The International Monetary Fund: “In 2026 Italian growth will collapse to +0.2% due to a stop to the Superbonus and less stimulus from the Pnrr”

Italy’s growth in 2024 and 2025 will be around 0.7% “due to investment programs” and with the contribution of budget policy. But in 2026 it will collapse to 0.2% “with the Superbonus running out and the Pnrr continuing to exist but not with such strength”. The International Monetary Fund, […]

There growth of Italy in 2024 and 2025 will be around 0.7% “due to investment programs” and with the contribution of budget policy. But in 2026 it will collapse to 0.2% “with the Super bonus which reaches exhaustion and the Pnrr which continues to be there but not with so much strength”. The International Monetary Fund, which two days ago had already cut its forecasts for the Peninsula’s GDP, now broadens the horizon of analysis and foresees a gloomy picture. Very different from that outlined by the government in Economics and finance documentaccording to which the GDP would rise by 1% this year thanks to a boost of even 0.9% from the maxi tax credit definitively stopped with the latest decree on tax breaks in construction, in 2025 it would mark a +1.2% and then it would only fall back slightly to +1.1%.

Helge Berger, deputy director of the European Department of the Fund, in the press conference on the Regional Economic Outlook for Europe clarified that the policies that will be adopted in the coming years will still be able to change the situation for the better: “Italy could make sure that the structural reforms internal parts are in order. There is a lot of work to do in terms of reforms infrastructure and dell‘instruction. These efforts will make a difference if they are continued with greater momentum“. However, the use of debt will be of little help, an avenue which will in fact be precluded for Italy by the rules of the new Stability Pact.

In general, “the low growth potential remains Europe’s Achilles’ heel”, warns the Fund, underlining that in the Old Continent it is time to consolidate public accounts with the aim of strengthening their sustainability. “Deep budget reforms will be necessary to address the spending pressures associated with laging populationthe needs of defence and funding for green transition. Structural reforms to increase per capita growth should be part of the solution.”