The so-called Russian peace proposal partly follows what Moscow and Kiev discussed two years ago when the Istanbul negotiations were interrupted. Then each blamed the failure on the other. Today Vladimir Putin also decided to make his voice heard to “derail” the summit which took place in Switzerland. And, above all, to relaunch his position with other demands/diktats that the Ukrainians swear they are absolutely not willing to accept.
Moscow asks Kiev to withdraw from regions it has not conquered
During the 2022 talks, Moscow had softened its position and no longer demanded that Kiev recognize its sovereignty over Donbass and Crimea. It was possible to agree that these territories would remain in a sort of limbo and that their definitive status would be decided “within 15 years” and without the use of “military means”. But today Putin is asking for much more, given that in the meantime he has included Crimea and the territories of the regions Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson (including parts still in enemy hands) in the Constitution as parts of the Federation. He therefore wants this sovereignty to be recognized and for the Ukrainians to withdraw. Of course it is good to remember that these would be initial positions, to be reviewed in the negotiations.
The Kremlin’s veto on the defense of Kiev
Ukraine’s non-entry into NATO had almost been agreed upon and Putin is strongly proposing it again. At the time there was no agreement on a fundamental point: Who guarantees Kiev against possible invasions? The signatory countries, such as the USA, European nations, China, Türkiye and, of course, Russia. But, while the Ukrainians envisaged an automatic mechanism that after three days would have allowed any guarantor to intervene even alone, Russia asked for its right of veto.
Today this point is difficult to resolve, also because it would also predict the disarmament of Kiev. Moscow said no more than 100 thousand men, 342 tanks and 102 planes, as well as other means. Zelensky spoke of 250 thousand men, 800 tanks and 160 aircraft.
«Denazification» and guarantees for Russian-speaking Ukrainians
The Kremlin has been talking about the need to “denazify” the neighboring country from the beginning and it has never been clear what he meant. The most likely thing is that it is the request, made in Istanbul in 2022, for rules for ban the celebration of the “heroes” who fought against Stalin alongside the Nazis. Then the parliament should recognize the rights of Ukrainians who speak Russian outside the disputed areas, canceling the rules requiring them to use only the Ukrainian language. After the invasion, Putin spoke explicitly about removing the “Nazi clique” around Zelensky, together, of course, with the president himself. Now the Russian leader seems to want to focus above all on replacing the head of state.
Zelensky’s illegitimacy
Elected in 2019, Zelensky saw his presidency expire on May 21. Except that with the ongoing war and the occupied territories, elections were postponed and the president’s term was extended. Putin says this is illegal: “During martial law, only Rada elections can be postponed,” he explained, citing the Ukrainian Constitution. So him he would not like to deal with Zelensky but with parliament. In the Rada, however, Zelensky’s men are in the majority while those of the Party of Regions (later to become the Opposition Platform), which was pro-Russian, are completely absent. From October 2022 this party is even illegal. But this way Putin would avoid having to meet his great enemy.
