Today the smoke screen will finally begin to lift. And we will begin to glimpse what could really be the point of collapse of the complicated European puzzle, shaken by an election that saw the two main European leaders, the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron and the German Olaf Scholz, leave heavily bruised. Until yesterday the debate was full of diversions, with everyone concentrating on speaking above all to their electorate. The surreal ballet we have been witnessing for days goes in this direction, for example, with the S&D socialists ready to say that Giorgia Meloni is an “extreme right leader” (so the German Chancellor last Sunday) and to reiterate that towards the ECR conservatives have a real veto.
A conventio ad excludendum that is all based on a gigantic misunderstanding. For the indication of the four top European jobs, starting from the future president of the EU Commission, no one – much less Meloni – is in fact thinking of joining the so-called “Ursula majority” which, today as in 2019, is the only one to have the necessary numbers. More banally and as is normal for the party that expresses the prime minister of a heavy founding country like Italy, Fdi could add its votes when the increasingly probable von der Leyen’s encore arrives – by secret ballot – under scrutiny by the ‘Eurocamera. First dealing with a heavy economic portfolio for the EU commissioner which falls to Italy. Nothing strange. This is how the European logic works where politics keeps contiguous and compatible families together, but without losing sight of the representation of everyone and the weight (political but also in terms of inhabitants) of the individual states. It is no coincidence that in 2019 the Ecr group took different paths: the Polish Pis – in the Warsaw government with Mateusz Morawiecki – voted en bloc for von der Leyen, the Fdi spoke out against it. This time the exact opposite will probably happen, with ECR once again divided in what is a one-shot vote on the president of the EU Commission and not a trust with a parliamentary majority as we understand it in Italy. In short, there would be nothing strange.
On the other hand, the numbers speak for themselves. And, despite the advance of the right in France and Germany, they say that once again we will have to start from the “Ursula majority” between the EPP, S& D and the liberals of Renew (402 seats) to reach the quorum of 361 necessary to elect the new president of the Commission. With a margin of 41 which does not cover the inevitable and always numerous “snipers”. And this is where the 25 newly elected Brothers of Italy can be useful.
All this will begin to be discussed at the informal European Council scheduled for this afternoon in Brussels. A meeting where the four candidates for the top jobs (presidency of the Commission, Council and Parliament and EU High Representative) should be taken stock and where Meloni intends to move with the prudence that has characterized her in recent days. However, France and Germany would like to speed up the deadlines, so as to arrive at the EU Council scheduled for 27-28 June and formalize von der Leyen’s candidacy. The EPP, although with different nuances, is on the same line. Meloni awaits the moves of those who have the ball in the negotiation, but without haste and with the aim of bringing home a commissioner with an important economic portfolio (Economic Affairs, Industry or Competition) together with the vice-presidency of the Commission. If there is no clarity on this and the other names in the field, explains an authoritative government representative, then it is better to do things calmly. A point on which Italy can have a role, because the prior green light in the EU Council must come from half plus one of the twenty-seven, but which represent at least 65% of the population (and ours is the third country by number of inhabitants ).
A slowdown on the timing, however, means moving the nomination of the president of the EU Commission close to the French legislative elections (30 June and 7 July), which could also see the victory of Marine Le Pen. The timing, however, in this match is decisive. And the more days pass, the more von der Leyen risks. But in order to give her his support in Parliament, Meloni wants guarantees on the Italian Commissioner. Because the prime minister is also grappling with some unknowns.
Starting from the fact that if Jordan Bardella truly became French Prime Minister, the European cordon sanitaire around the Rassemblement national would be greatly weakened. With Le Pen who could become an attractive pole for the Euro-right. And maybe even try to empty ECR by insisting on the fact that Fdi acted as a “crutch” for von der Leyen.
