While the funeral ceremonies for Ebrahim Raisi begin in Tehran, in the West we are thinking about the sudden political crisis taking place in the Islamic Republic and its consequences for regional and global balances. At stake is not only the choice of Raisi’s successor, but, prospectively and much more importantly, that of the successor of the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Il Giornale participated in a conversation organized by Foreign Policy, with two of the leading US experts on Iran: Robin Wright, writer for the New Yorker and scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; and Karim Sadjadpour, fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Certainly, the death of the “most unpopular” president represents a “turning point” for Iran, explains Wright: “Raisi was the one who had to supervise the transition after the inevitable death of Khamenei. Raisi was also one of the two most obvious candidates to succeed him. The other is Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba. If this were to happen, a theocratic dynasty would effectively be created.”
Beyond the conspiracy theories that Khamenei is the beneficiary of Raisi’s death, which would favor his son’s rise to supreme leader, in reality his disappearance complicates the ayatollah’s plans. «Kahemenei had been cultivating Raisi for the last twenty years. His death is a hard blow for him,” says Sadjadpour. For Khamenei, in view of the elections on 28 June, according to the expert, three options open up: «One is to introduce his son to the Iranians, making him run for president, just like he did with Raisi, but I think it is unlikely; it’s another to play it safe, choose someone with a background in the security forces. Perhaps the most obvious candidate is the current speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; another option is to find a smaller replica of himself, someone who is a radical cleric, like Raisi, with some managerial skills.” But what is certain, says Sadjadpour, is that «the regime is in a very precarious position» and «Raisi’s death is accelerating one of two probable scenarios: Iran’s transition towards military dictatorship. The other scenario is the implosion of the regime.”
Even for Wright, «the future of the Revolution is at stake. There have been attempts to reform it, so that it can gradually reintegrate into the world. That was kind of the point of the 2015 nuclear deal. After Trump’s decision to exit the deal, Iran was incentivized to push its nuclear program again and will likely now become the next nuclear power. After the attack suffered in Syria and after the disastrous attack against Israel, Tehran does not feel safe, even with its vast missile arsenal.”
And then there is, in the background, the role of the Guardians of the Revolution, who can assume the role of “king maker”. «According to the Constitution – recalls Sadjadpour – it is the Assembly of Experts that chooses or removes the supreme leader. But the question is: will the 190,000 Pasdaran accept that a group of clerics over eighty choose their new commander in chief? Broadly speaking, there are two schools of thought among the leadership of the Guardians of the Revolution. There are those who want to continue with the spirit of 1979, to keep Iran a revolutionary state. Then there are others who are certainly not democrats, but who believe that the country should open up, deciding as the Chinese did in the 1970s to give priority to the economy and national interests.”
What is certain, Wright concludes, is that there will be no immediate changes in Iran’s foreign policy. «The more Iran feels isolated from the West or threatened by Israel, the more it will tighten its ties with China, Russia and North Korea.
Although it is an unlikely alliance that will not last, except for the fact that they are all anti-American and anti-Western, but that is the only thing that holds them together.”
