Surprise: Joe Biden has a problem of consensus among young people, but the cause is not the tragedy of Gaza Strip. The visibility of the protests on American college campuses has created the impression that this generation will decide how to vote on November 5 based on the behavior of the US government in Middle East. Instead, surveys continue to pour in that provide a different diagnosis. Palestine interests, excites and mobilizes only a fringe of young people, while the majority focuses on other issues such as the economy (even when it is pro-Palestinian).
The first survey in this sense was carried out by Harvard Institute of Politics, on an audience of interviewees between 18 and 29 years of age. In this range, the opinion on Biden’s foreign policy in the Middle East is clearly negative: 76% disapprove, only 18% are favourable. So it is clear which side this generation is on in the conflict. However, only 2% of those interviewed put Gaza at the top of their concerns; by far the most important issues are economic ones (27% of responses put the economy in first place). Predominantly pro-Palestinian sympathies are one thing, behavior at the polls is another thing, according to this survey.
An even more recent opinion poll is the one commissioned by the weekly The Economist to the YouGov company. The latter dates back to the end of April and therefore was carried out at the height of the student protests and occupations on campuses. The interviewees in this case too are between 18 and 29 years of age. 22% cite inflation as the number one problem. Foreign policy also in this case obtains a modest 2% of responses, in relation to its importance in orienting the vote.
The picture provided by these two polls corrects the impression that Gaza can significantly shift the electoral behaviors of young people on November 5th. The marches and campus occupations are scaled down as a representative signal of a generation. It is likely that even among students there are minorities of activists and a silent majority, who suffer the disruption of academic life and studies as a detriment.
At the level of general public opinion, including all ages, a shift in Americans is confirmed in favor of the Palestinian cause. The Gallup institute in its latest poll on the topic finds 51% of respondents saying they are more sympathetic to Israel and 27% to the Palestinians, while a decade ago the responses in favor of the Palestinians were less than half, only 13%. The youth component contributes significantly to this shift.
However, young people, like the majority of the population, will or will not go to vote November 5and will choose this or that candidate, allowing themselves to be influenced by other issues rather than by Gaza. High inflation and other economic problems may hurt Biden more than his support for Israel. However, it remains possible that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will take other categories of voters away from Biden, in particular immigrants of Arab and Islamic origin, concentrated in key states such as Michigan.
