«The main unknown of this war? They are the European partners. If they don’t find a way to increase weapons production to support Ukraine, they will find themselves in Russia’s sights.” General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy of Kiev military intelligence he is known as a man who does not like the spotlight and who always measures his words with great attention. But in recent days his statements have gone around the world and aroused quite a few reactions, from Washington through Paris to Moscow.
General, in an interview withEconomistyou spoke about the possibility that the war in Ukraine could end without a victory for Kiev but with a negotiation.
«Ukraine is currently unable to win in the field due to a lack of ammunition, men and tactical aviation. Even with the aid allocated by the US Congress, we can hardly achieve parity with Russia in terms of artillery ammunition. And this is what we must focus our attention on now, to prevent the enemy from gaining the advantage.”
At what point is the delivery of American weapons?
«Ukraine has already received several urgent shipments but there may be delays with subsequent ones. A batch of much-needed anti-tank missiles and 155mm artillery shells, which are in short supply around the world, arrived on Sunday. The second entered last Monday. There was a new delivery of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems to Poland from Spain. Soon they will be on the Ukrainian front. But they cannot match Russia’s reserves of projectiles or provide effective protection against the low-tech, guided bombs with which Russia attacks Ukraine almost every day.”
The Russians, on the other hand, don’t seem to have any problems in this sense.
«Russian military production has increased but will be able to reach its maximum only at the beginning of 2026. There is a lack of raw materials and engineers. Moscow currently has around 270 Iskander cruise missiles and produces up to 40 per month. It also has 40 Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles, with a production rate of up to 10 per month. To these must be added 400 Onyx/Onyx-M cruise missiles. Furthermore, North Korean factories are working at full capacity producing weapons and ammunition for Russia. Since September, Pyongyang has sent around 10,000 containers of weapons to Russia. They are the same ones that contained the missiles used to bomb civilians in Kharkiv.”
You have increased operations against Russian refineries. There are those who criticize the interventions on Russian territory because they cause a dangerous escalation. Is that so?
«We have no choice but to attack targets in the enemy’s rear, including military infrastructure, command and control centers and industrial facilities that produce weapons and ammunition. Now fuel prices in Russia are now dictated by us.”
Again at the Economist, you spoke of risks for the countries on NATO’s eastern flank…
«I repeat, the main problem is that our allies are struggling to sustain the pace of weapons production. It can take months before sufficient aid arrives on the battlefield to strengthen our defenses.”
In what sense?
«The actual speed of transfer of one or another type of weapon is influenced by several parameters: logistical and technical availability, but also the speed with which our armed forces acquire weapons, finally maintenance times must be taken into account. In summary: the transfer of air defense equipment (Patriot, NASAMS, Avenger and VAMPIRE) takes 119 to 177 days.”
French President Emmanuel Macron he stated that if Moscow breaks through the front he does not rule out sending his troops. Will Kiev ask for this support?
«There are no red lines, but priorities. And now the priority now is the supply of shells to recover ground on the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Lugansk lines. The second is the F-16s to counter Russian air superiority. The third is for allies to work in Ukraine on training, engineering and advisory operations. This is needed now.”
What happens if Chasiv Yar falls: can the Russians really break through again?
«Moscow’s goal of completely seizing the Donetsk and Lugansk regions has been unchanged since the first days of the war. The stronghold of Khasiv Yar is a cause for concern for us, because its loss paves the way for the last major cities of Donetsk.”
There are just a few days left until May 9th, Victory Day. Putin will want success…
«The Russian army received the order to win something before Putin’s visit to Beijing, the week after the 9th. Like Avdiivka and even before that Bakhmut, the occupation of Chasiv Yar is only a matter of time. It all depends on our reserves and stockpiles of weapons.”
