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General elections will be held in Panama on Sunday, May 5. In these elections, the president and vice president of the Republic, 20 deputies to the Central American Parliament, 71 deputies to the National Assembly and 81 mayors are elected. Due to constitutional term limits, the incumbent president Laurentino Cortizo of the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD, centre-left) cannot run for a second consecutive mandate.
The favorite candidate in these presidential elections was the center-right billionaire and former president Ricardo Martinelli, who however was convicted on money laundering charges in July last year and, having the appeal court confirmed the sentence last February, his candidacy was rejected. Former Minister of Public Security José Mulinowho had been chosen by Martinelli as vice president, then replaced him as candidate for president.
To avoid being arrested, immediately after the appeal court ruling, Ricardo Martinelli took refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy, requesting political asylum. Since then, through his social media and those of his dog Bruno, Martinelli has remotely managed the electoral campaign of José Mulino and the parties that support him.
Before being disqualified, Martinelli had a good lead in the polls, and now Mulino seems to continue to have a clear advantage over his 3 major opponents: the liberal Ricardo Lombanathe former president Martin Torrijos and the liberal-conservative Romuo Roux. Panamanian elections do not have a second round, which means that whoever gets one more vote than the second-place finisher is elected.
In recent weeks his rivals have focused their attacks on Mulino, but he has not participated in televised debates and has largely avoided interviews. Little is known about his policy proposals for a country facing urgent challenges. The closure of the vast copper mine in Cobre Panama is expected to cause a 4% loss of GDP, the social security system is facing a liquidity crisis that has brought it to the brink of bankruptcy, and foreign debt has increased by 78% to $47 billion compared to five years ago. Another serious problem was a prolonged drought that reduced the water flow of the Panama Canal (which is fed not by the ocean but by the surrounding lakes), which greatly reduced naval transits through the canal, delaying shipments.
The main thing that Mulino promises is therefore the “return” of the Martinelli era. Many voters remember the economic boom during the Martinelli presidency, when GDP growth regularly exceeded 6%. Now Mulino promises 7% growth, greater youth employment, the highest minimum wage in Latin America and major infrastructure projects. He also promised to help Martinelli escape his conviction.
Another aspect of Martinelli’s popularity is the fact that, as an entrepreneur, he is considered a “non-politician”, far from what is considered the political and economic elite of the rabiblancos, that is, the large white families that have dominated the country for decades. In 2022 and 2023, Panama was rocked by two unprecedented protest movements. The first was triggered by the rising cost of living and poor social services, while the second erupted in opposition to the renegotiation of the Cobre Panama mining contract, which later had to be canceled due to protests.
Both movements revealed broad public distrust of President Laurentino Cortizo and the ruling Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD) for its involvement in a series of corruption scandals and for failing to meet voters’ needs. Another big problem is the growing influence that criminal gangs linked to drug trafficking have on the country’s politics and economy.
All major candidates propose significant changes to Panama’s constitution. Most of them want to introduce a second round for the presidential elections. Cortizo won in 2019 with a third of the votes cast, Mulino could do so with just a quarter. But broader reforms will be needed to prevent further decay of public institutions.
Liberal candidate Ricardo Lombana and liberal-conservative Ricardo Roux want to establish a constituent assembly to strengthen Panama’s institutions and prevent it from becoming a narco-state. Former President Martin Torrijos, son of Panamanian national hero Omar Torrijos, also favors constitutional change but warned it would not be the solution to the country’s problems.
Since the United States relinquished control of the Canal in 1999, Panama has experienced more than two decades of strong economic growth. It remains, however, the third most unequal country in Latin America when it comes to wealth distribution. In 2024 the country will face major economic challenges, but the political difficulties are equally serious.
THE POLITICAL-ELECTORAL SYSTEM
Panama is a presidential representative democratic republic, based on a multi-party system, in which the President of Panama is both head of state and head of government. Executive power is exercised by the president. Legislative power is vested in the National Assembly. The judiciary is independent of the executive and the legislature.
The Panamanian Constitution provides for three independent bodies with clearly defined responsibilities: the Comptroller General of the Republic, who is responsible for managing public funds; the Electoral Tribunal, which has the responsibility of guaranteeing the freedom, transparency and effectiveness of the popular vote; and the Ministry of Public Administration, which supervises the interests of the State and the Municipalities.
The president and vice president are elected in a single ballot for a five-year term by direct popular vote. Presidents cannot immediately run for re-election, but can run again after waiting five years.
The National Assembly (Asamblea Nacional) is made up of 71 members and is renewed every 5 years in correspondence with the presidential elections. The deputies of the rural districts are chosen with a single-member majority system in a single round, while the city districts elect more deputies through a proportional system.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index classifies Panama as a “flawed democracy” on a par with countries like South Africa, Jamaica, Suriname and East Timor.
On the next pages, the country’s political history, recent election results, the main political parties and presidential candidates.
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