Missiles from North Korea, drones from Iran, and a huge amount of technical assistance from China. An analysis by The Telegraph highlights how support for Russia has become massive and could shape the fate of the war. «Russian President Vladimir Putin may complain about the support Ukraine is receiving from its NATO allies, but it is doubtful that Russia would be able to maintain its military offensive without the help it is receiving from its diverse group of autocratic friends». In the latest indication of the support Moscow is receiving for its war effort in Ukraine, a team of United Nations investigators has concluded that debris from a missile that landed in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on January 2 came from a North Korean ballistic missile. Hwasong-11.
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THE SUPPORT
The weapon was supplied to Moscow by Pyongyang, despite North Korea being under a wide range of sanctions imposed in 2006 due to its ballistic and nuclear programs. The missile will also be part of the massive weapons shipment that North Korea has sent to Russia in recent months, with South Korean security officials estimating that nearly 7,000 containers full of missiles, artillery shells and other weapons have been shipped since December. ammunition.
Iranian drones have also become a familiar feature of the Ukrainian battlefield, with Russian forces regularly using them to conduct swarm attacks against key Ukrainian infrastructure.
«While China’s support for Putin’s war effort is, by contrast, focused more on helping Russia rebuild its military industrial base to a level not seen since the Soviet era» again the analysis from The Telegraph. The latest assessment conducted by the Biden administration ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing last month found that China was supplying significant quantities of machine tools, drone and turbojet engines, and cruise missile technology, as well to help the Russians expand their satellite capabilities on the Ukrainian battlefield. Chinese and Russian organizations are also coordinating efforts to develop drone production in Russia. As Blinken commented after his unsuccessful visit, China is «supplying components that are fueling Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine»without which it was doubtful whether the Kremlin would have been able to maintain military operations at the current level.
THE IMPACT
The help Russia is receiving from this unholy alliance of hostile states is certainly having a tangible impact on the battlefield, where Ukraine’s plight was recently described as «desperate» by senior Ukrainian security officials. In fact according to the in-depth analysis «qThis precarious situation also does not appear to have improved significantly, even though the United States and its European allies – including Britain – have recently reaffirmed their commitment to addressing Kiev’s desperate need for extra munitions. Ukrainian forces defending the eastern strategic stronghold of Khasiv Yar, for example, are struggling to counter the growing number of attacks they face from Russian forces and drones, despite promises of new munitions made by the United States and its allies. The Russians have identified Chasiv Yar as their next strategic target in eastern Ukraine following the capture of Avdiivka in February. They believe its capture would allow them to command higher ground and target towns and cities further west».
And the Ukrainian commanders on site underline that «having managed to repel an earlier assault in the region by Russian Wagner mercenaries because they had sufficient supplies of artillery shells and long-range missiles». But the Ukrainians’ ability to hold off another Russian offensive will be severely compromised if additional arms supplies do not arrive soon.
THE DEFICIENCIES
The shortfalls facing Ukrainian forces in the east are even more worrying as the Russians are said to be assembling a 150,000-strong force to launch a new offensive in the coming months. The prospect of further Russian gains, moreover, will be greatly strengthened by the fact that the Russians continue to enjoy air superiority, with as yet no sign of the long-promised F-16 fighters, which the Ukrainians had first requested 18 months ago. At a time when Western leaders believe that helping Ukraine achieve victory is vital to securing their own long-term prospects, the current plight of Ukrainian forces is not just cause for concern. It should serve to spur them into action, urgently ensuring that Kiev has the firepower it needs to defend itself.
FEAR
«As demonstrated by the alliance that Moscow has assembled to support its war effort in Ukraine, the conflict, from the West’s perspective, is no longer a war against Russia: it is a war against a powerful combination of autocratic regimes that , in their different ways, are totally contrary to the concept of Western liberal democracy. Ensuring that Russia is soundly defeated in Ukraine is vital not only to dissuade Putin from launching future acts of aggression in Europe: it is essential if countries such as China, Iran and North Korea are also to understand that their antagonistic stance towards the West will meet the same resolute response as Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Just as Russia must be denied victory in Ukraine, so must Iran’s attempts to destabilize the Middle East and deny China’s plan to conquer Taiwan».
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