Francesca Musacchio
April 30, 2024
«It’s yet another attempt and we’re all with our fingers crossed. But some statements suggest that this could be the right time. Our Foreign Minister also expressed his confidence in a positive expectation. Of course, a truce opens up questions.” It is the comment of General Leonardo Tricarico, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, on the hypothesis of a truce in the conflict in the Middle East.
He talked about questions. Which?
«The first concerns the radical part of Netanyahu’s government, in particular two ministers: Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who, based on their declarations, perhaps would not tolerate a truce and would leave the government. How consistent they will be with their own declarations or whether they are not a joke, as often happens to them, we will see. It’s a question of seeing how the ultra-right will react and whether it will support the government.”
October 2023 The date of the Hamas attack on Israeli territory which culminated in a massacre of civilians. Is the agreement being discussed a good agreement?
«It is for Israel and for the entire international community. Let us remember that in the past Israel, for a single conscript soldier, freed over a thousand Palestinians. In this case, proportionality is not a measure applicable one to one or based on another indicator. It is to be believed that the demands for the release of the Palestinians are consistent, but Israel should have no difficulty in handing over hundreds of detainees in exchange for the hostages who are still alive.”
Are the hostages alive?
«There are many rumors but we don’t know who he is holding hostage.
It is not certain that they are all in the hands of Hamas, which does not know whether it can negotiate on behalf of others. The hostages are life insurance for Hamas, because once it no longer has them in its hands, war activities could resume with less accuracy in hitting targets by Israel, as may have probably already happened.”
And then there’s Netanyahu…
«For him too, a truce or cessation of hostilities would mean a showdown. He will have to face careful and serious investigations. Too many people say that he knew about October 7th, but we need to understand what and in what terms. According to some sources there are written documents and reports that have reached him. It will be interesting to understand what happened and why the warning signs were ignored. And then there is the part that concerns him privately and the accounts opened with the justice system. The cessation of hostilities for Netanyahu means coming to terms with his public and private interests.”
Do you think there is likely to be a rift within Hamas between those in Gaza and those in Qatar?
«Yes, because Qatar’s influence on those on its territory is clear, starting from the top. But this drive belt with territories does not work. It is possible that the indications from Hamas in Qatar will not be fully implemented by Hamas on the ground. The fracture is likely, but if that were the case, Hamas would be ungovernable and things would become further complicated.”
What scenarios do you see after the ceasefire?
«I hope that in Riyadh, where there is Blinken and other foreign ministers of countries that play a role in this affair, we can already begin to discuss the post-conflict situation, taking into account everyone’s needs. I believe there will be a UN governorate or a coalition of the willing, which can create an ad hoc multinational force to monitor reconstruction and a new state structure. A transition that can contemplate the international guarantee of a vast coalition of countries that have not openly sided with either one or the other. Guarantor countries for the reconstruction and state construction of a new Palestine.”
