Ukraine, risk of nuclear war after the destruction of Russian radar? This is what Putin’s decree provides

Drone attacks on a Russian radar station could lead to a nuclear attack. The news was reported by Newsweek, according to which Ukraine has crossed one of Moscow’s red lines for the potential use of nuclear weapons: “The interruption of response actions of nuclear forces”, according to the wording of a Kremlin decree signed by President Vladimir Putin in 2020. According to US magazine sources, on April 11, Ukrainian drones targeted the 590th separate radio engineering center of military unit 84680 in the city of Kovilkino on Wednesday. Kovilkino is located in the Republic of Mordovia, approximately 360 miles from the Ukrainian border. The site hosts a 29B6 “Container” over-the-horizon radar, which is part of Russia’s reconnaissance and early warning network for aerospace attacks, including ballistic missile attacks.

THE ATTACK

According to Newsweek, the results of the April 11 attack are still being determined.

Ukrainian media reported that the building from which the site is controlled was damaged in the attack, while Russian authorities said two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) had been shot down. Ukraine’s Pravda quoted an anonymous Defense Intelligence (DIU) source as saying that the outcome of the attack was still being assessed. Newsweek also contacted the Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin for comment. If the information were true, Nesweek further explains, the attacks could have satisfied one of the conditions that determine the possibility of the Russian Federation using nuclear weapons”, as established by the 2020 presidential decree.

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PUTIN’S DECREE

Among the conditions set by Russia for evaluating a nuclear attack are “receipt of reliable information on the launch of ballistic missiles against the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies” and “the use by the enemy of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction on the territories of the Russian Federation” and (or) its allies”. Other criteria, Nesweek reports, are “the impact of the enemy on critical state or military structures of the Russian Federation, the failure of which will lead to the interruption of response actions of nuclear forces” and aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons , when the very existence of the State is threatened.”

NUCLEAR ESCALATION

The threat of nuclear escalation – through nuclear weapons or a disaster at one of the many civilian nuclear power plants in the combat zone – has loomed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Putin and his seniors Officials, Nesweek reports, have repeatedly warned of a nuclear showdown brought on by Western involvement in the conflict, as have allied leaders, including President Joe Biden. The most important concerns concern Russian tactical nuclear warheads intended for localized battlefield use. The Kremlin has never drawn any tangible “red lines” beyond its documents on nuclear doctrine. In March, Putin said that Western adversaries must realize that Russia also has weapons capable of hitting targets on their territory, adding that the whole situation raises the risk of a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization.

THE BLACKMAIL

The threat of nuclear escalation has proved a powerful tool for the Kremlin in its attempt to stymie Western aid to Ukraine and pressure Kiev into territorial and political concessions. Despite all the Russian threats, the United States has repeatedly said it had no sign that Moscow was preparing to resort to weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. Already in May 2022, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexei Zaitsev accused those who suggested that Moscow could use nuclear weapons of deliberate lies, adding: «Russia firmly adheres to the principle that there can be no winners in a war nuclear, and must not be unleashed.”

Russian conduct, contrary to rhetoric, has so far remained in line with this principle. Ukraine has launched several attacks on Russian territory that theoretically reach the thresholds set by Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, but the Kremlin has shown no intention of escalating. Ukrainian drones and missiles have repeatedly struck air bases hosting nuclear-capable bomber aircraft and targeted early warning aircraft, as in the attacks on Engels and Dyagilevo air bases in Russia in December 2022. Kiev has also targeted Russian ships that they can be armed with nuclear-capable missiles.

Moscow has generally responded with conventional weapons and withdrawing forces to safer locations, rather than escalating the conflict. However, the long-range Ukrainian attacks have drawn complaints from Kiev’s Western partners, much to the chagrin of Ukrainians living under Russian bombardment as they wage a laborious and costly defense along the entire front line. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted in the fall of 2022 that his Russian counterpart would not use nuclear weapons for fear of his own death. «He understands that after the use of nuclear weapons he will no longer be able to preserve, so to speak, his life. I trust in this,” Zelensky said of Putin.