the day most at risk

Between today Monday 1 July 2024 e Wednesday 3 the possible impact of one or more is expected geomagnetic storms on the Terrayet another episode in the long sequence of phenomena which has been affecting our planet for months. The latest significant event occurred on Friday, June 28, when an expected solar storm of classe G1 (the weakest on a scale of five) instead manifested itself as very violent class G4. In Italia it was early afternoon. For a few hours, a new exploit was hypothesized polar auroras in our skies, as happened on the night between May 10 and 11, 2024 thanks to G4 geomagnetic storms. However, the rapid decline in the intensity of the solar wind has shattered the dreams of those who wanted to witness the suggestive light show again.

For the phenomenon expected at the beginning of July, no Northern Lights are expected at low latitudes (including Italian), given that the power would once again be limited to a G1 class. We remind you that solar or geomagnetic storms are classified from G1 (weak) to G5 (extreme) based on the speed and intensity of the impact between the flow of electrically charged particles “shot” by the Sun – the plasma of the solar wind – and the Earth’s magnetic field. Polar auroras become more likely in Italy starting from G4 solar storms. An increase in the intensity of the phenomenon as happened on June 28 cannot be ruled out, however for the moment it is best to keep expectations of new auroras in the next few days very low.

Fueling the risk of geomagnetic storms between July 1 and 3, 2024, a small series of two or three coronal mass ejections (CME) from the Sun that occurred in recent days, associated with filaments appeared in the southern area of stella. These are enormous flows of solar material trapped by opposing magnetic fields; when they “break free,” they can be associated with significant particle ejections. If directed towards Earth, the latter can give rise to the aforementioned geomagnetic storms. As explained by the specialized space weather portal Spaceweather.com, managed by the astrophysicist Tony Phillipsthe greatest chance of a geomagnetic storm is concentrated on Wednesday, July 3. “Two or three CMEs, which have left the Sun in the last few days, are expected to graze the Earth’s magnetic field from July 1 to 3. The biggest hit will probably come on July 3 from this CME, blasted into space by an eruption of magnetic filaments in the Sun’s southern hemisphere. Smaller G1 storms are possible before July 4,” Dr. Phillips explained.

Although geomagnetic storms are often awaited in the hope of witnessing the polar auroras (Northern Lights in the Northern Hemisphere, Southern Lights in the Southern Hemisphere), these phenomena of great power they are not harmless at all. A G4 storm, necessary for the triggering of the Northern Lights in the skies of Italy, could cause significant problems for the eletricity gridat satellite operations and radio communications, GPS and the internet. Not to mention the effects on migratory animals that rely on magnetoreception. An extreme G5 storm can have catastrophic effects on our technologies, with consequences lasting for months.

According to experts, the consequences of a phenomenon similar to theCarrington Event of 1859 could be so significant on electrical and communications infrastructure that some countries could seize the opportunity to unleash a guerra against enemies. This is also why the magnetic activity of the star is constantly monitored by scientists; the risks on Earth are absolutely not to be underestimated and in this period they are greater, precisely because we are heading towards the maximum peak of magnetic activityexpected between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. This is the reason why we are constantly “targeted” by these more or less powerful solar storms.