Following Joe Biden’s detailed disclosure of Israeli proposals for an exchange of prisoners with Hamas and for a lasting truce, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is busy at home closing ranks to gather all possible support for that project, which remains in any case conditional on a still awaited explicit approval from Hamas. And he immediately received the support of President Herzog.
Biden is perfectly aware of the complexity of Israeli internal politics and therefore – while two far-right ministers, Itamar ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have already expressed total opposition – a Netanyahu advisor, Ophir Falk, found it appropriate to reiterate that the one illustrated from Biden “it is the agreement that we approved. It is not good, but we absolutely want the release of the hostages”: 125 Israelis held in Gaza since 7 October, dispersed according to intelligence in dozens of secret locations and watched closely by militiamen armed. Only an agreement could therefore bring them home.
“We expect that if Hamas accepts the proposal – said the spokesperson of the US National Security Council, John Kirby – that Israel will also make it its own”. However, Falk noted that although the general framework has been outlined “many details still need to be worked out”. In the meantime, we are waiting for Hamas leader Yihya Sinwar to make his judgment heard from his hideout in the south of the Strip. A Hamas source cited by the media confirmed that there are some positive elements in the project mentioned by Biden. Hamas, however, insists on having guarantees regarding the end of the war and on being certain that it will continue to play an active role in Gaza even after the end of the conflict. Reassured on those points, according to the source, Hamas could then show flexibility on the other aspects of the agreement: for example on the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released.
But Israel continues to aim for its definitive political elimination from the scene. “Under no circumstances will Hamas remain in power in Gaza, we are already developing an alternative government” revealed Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. “We will isolate entire areas, expel Hamas men and introduce other forces.” Apparently, a reference to support for powerful family clans. In the meantime, however, the issue of management of the Rafah crossing remains unresolved, following its occupation by the Israeli army: Egypt also yesterday warned that it will remain closed, even to humanitarian aid, until the soldiers have withdrawn . Among the hypotheses studied, while intense fighting continues in Rafah, is the involvement of the Palestinian National Authority or even European observers.
Now, however, Netanyahu faces growing resistance in his government to the plan outlined by Biden, without his ministers apparently being aware of it. In addition to the obvious opposition of the two far-right lists, ‘Jewish Power’ and ‘Religious Zionism’, a sense of unease spreads within Likud itself. “That plan – denounced a Likud parliamentarian, Moshe Saada – shatters our deterrent in the Region. Most party members are against it”. Even on the Orthodox lists, tension is growing against Netanyahu while nine judges of the Supreme Court have examined the thorny issue of compulsory conscription for young Orthodox people, also in light of the new needs created in the army due to the losses of soldiers since 7 October .
According to an opinion poll by public television Kan, 40 percent of Israelis support the project described by Biden, while 27 percent oppose it. Unlike Netanyahu, 40 percent believe that that plan would effectively mean the end of the war and 42 percent are convinced that Hamas will continue to govern Gaza in the future. In essence, the Israelis seem skeptical – just like Biden – about the Netanyahu government’s chances of achieving an “absolute victory” in Gaza.
