While Iran cries the passing of its presidentthe world wonders about future of the Islamic Republic and above all on its relations with the countries of the Middle East: primarily Israelconsidered by some to be the main suspect. «Meanwhile, it is unlikely that Tel Aviv played a role in the disappearance of Ebrahim Raisi in what appears to be an accident.” observes Tiziano Marino, analyst at the Center for International Studies (CeSI) and expert on Iran. «Moreover both Raisi and the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, also a victim of the plane crash, were not the people who determined national security policy with the neighborhood: it was the Supreme Leader and the Guardians of the Revolution who did so. It is true that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was involved in diplomacy, but he was not considered a hawk or a person who wanted a direct confrontation with Israel.”
For Marino «what happened could rather be used by internal Iranian propaganda due to the Azerbaijani component within Iran and the relations between theAzerbaijan same (from which he returned Raisi) And Israel. The relationships between Tehran And Baku are particularly complicated and deteriorated when Azerbaijan got closer to Israel, purchasing some of its weapons which were decisive for the victory over Armenia in 2020. Let us not forget that there is a component of the Azerbaijani population in Iranespecially in the state security apparatus, which creates concern in Tehran and which is considered one longa manus of Tel Aviv, a presence that some fear could create internal security problems for the Iranian state. In this context and considering the recent attempt at rapprochement with Baku, it is reasonable to expect conspiracy theories against Israel.” For Marino, what will not change in any case will be the relations with China and Russia: «The Guardians of the Revolution have always managed contacts with Moscow, so no changes are expected. The relationship with China remains stable and essential for a country like Iran, subject to sanctions and which needs to attract investments. Especially with Beijing, therefore, we can expect an acceleration of trade.”
The real question is what will happen within the Islamic Republic and who will be strengthened (or weakened) following Raisi’s disappearance: «The problem is not his succession to the presidency of the Republic, which will be occupied by equally conservative exponents, but rather his candidacy for the Supreme Leader after Khameneinow 87 years old” Marino clarifies. «At the moment the son ofayatollah, but the hypothesis of collegial leadership is gaining ground: if this were the case we would see a further acceleration towards a military-led Iran. From this perspective, the Guardians of the Revolution are anything but weakened by Raisi’s disappearance.”
It remains to be understood in what forms the strong dissent within the country will take shape. «New elections to replace the president will certainly be an opportunity for discussion, after the last ones which saw a very low turnout. Perhaps it will be possible to revive the internal debate, but it is easier to think that in moments like these we will become more internally united, reuniting and reducing dissent. Raisi himself was not particularly loved, so it is more plausible that we will see a smooth transition, without obvious shocks” concludes the CeSI analyst.
Of Eleonora Lorusso
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