Confirmation of the death of the Iranian president Ebrahim Raisiconsidered a viable successor to Ali Khamenei Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, inevitably casts shadows on the future of the country and a veil of uncertainty that a tragic event of this type determines. Raisi, 63, was killed on Sunday, May 19, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other high-level officials, in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran. Their deaths come at a delicate time for a nation facing major challenges both at home and abroad as war rages in the Middle East and the Gaza Strip. We talked about it with the former diplomat Alberto Bradanini, Italian ambassador to Tehran (2008-2012) and Beijing (2013-2015) and President of the Center for Studies on Contemporary China. Recently he published for Anteo China. Dall‘Nenni’s humanism to the challenges of a multipolar world.
Dear Ambassador, what are the political prospects for Iran after the death of Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian? For now, everything points to a tragic accident, as the leadership of the Islamic Republic claims.
Obviously we don’t know what really happened, we are somewhat imaginative observers. Let’s try to construct an answer based on a certain interpretation. Given this, in Iran the ultimate power resides between the Shiite clergy and its armed wing, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which we call “Pasdaran”. If it is confirmed that it was an accident, which is currently the Iranian government’s favorite thesis, after the ad period interim of First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber new elections will be held. Please note that elections in Iran are not completely free, the list must be approved by the Guardians of the Revolution, the various institutional bodies and the Supreme Leader. In any case, if this thesis is confirmed there will be new elections and this cycle would be closed. However, there would be unpredictable consequences if it were proven or there were serious suspicions that it was an attack orchestrated by Israel.
What would Tehran’s response be in this eventuality?
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If this were the case, the Americans would hardly have approved of such heavy-handed interference from Tel Aviv. However, if Tehran were to react to an aggression, in this case the United States would inevitably feel obliged to intervene alongside Israel because no president could leave the Israelis alone in the face of the great enemy represented by Tehran. The Iranian government could also have well-founded suspicions about a possible attack, taking into account the fact that the three helicopters, only this one where Raisi and the foreign minister were, crashed, which is an objectively singular circumstance, and yet show that they believe the thesis of the accident for convenience. However, it should be remembered that in history there have also been accidents, not everything can be managed from the outside. If Tehran were to convince itself that it was an attack, we would be faced with a dramatic scenario.
The United States, in any case, does not seem to want an escalation in the region in an election year at all.
There are also the interests of large corporations to consider. In the event of war, the Strait of Hormuz would be blocked, oil would skyrocket, Wall Street stocks would plummet, major corporations would be damaged, and Democrats would surely lose elections. The USA, in this case, does not have the same interests as the Israelis, even if they often coincide. In the United States, the Israeli lobbies are very powerful: these individuals don’t care about pro-Palestine demonstrations on campuses, what matters to them is that there are friends in Congress and the White House. And so far they have always succeeded quite well.
The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, has asked the judges of the Hague court for arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar for war crimes and crimes against ‘humanity. What do you think?
Decency somehow imposed itself. The double standard that the Americans had imposed, in every field, before the ICC failed: they were unable to control its behavior even though the judges were threatened by part of Congress and by the Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. Things are not going well for these two gentlemen, even though the USA is not part of the Treaty of Rome, and on a practical level they will not be arrested. For Israel, the damage is above all from the point of view of image and reputation, damage which has been increasing from 8 October 2023 until today. Unfortunately, international law does not appear to be the guiding star for Israel. As regards the leader of Hamas, I would say that he is quite obvious.
Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to Xi-Jinping. In this chaotic context, is the partnership between Russia and China strengthened?
The relationship between Russia and China is based on interests. There is no military agreement like NATO, because China, in particular, likes to remain free and evaluate from time to time how to behave. But the closeness between the two countries is increasingly solid as it is based on investments and trade which today is worth 300 billion dollars, which is more than double compared to two years ago. It is worth considering the fact that the import of raw materials and energy takes place via land since there are 1500 km of common border between the two countries, which allows them to avoid transiting through sea straits controlled by the US Navy. Furthermore, both nations need to contain American pervasiveness and its warmongering expansionism.
Have Moscow and Beijing really put aside the old disagreements that developed during the Cold War?
This welding is not based on anti-capitalism but on concrete interests. Anyone who claims that there is mistrust between the two countries must take into account that it is a fundamentally equal relationship. Russia is a major military power and is rich in energy, gas, oil, raw materials and has vibrant agriculture. China for its part is a large economy. In all of this, the USA remains the leading military power and the largest economy on the planet, even if it is a time that is waning and the connection between Russia and China is destined to last.
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