Other than Piano Mattei, in Africa we continue to lose hits. Not Italy in particular: the entire West. European and American influence recedes, while that of others advances, in particular Putin’s Russia and his Wagner Group.
It may seem like a secondary event, compared to the tragedies taking place in Ukraine and Gaza. But it is truly unique that Moscoweven with all the weapons and money and strategic attention paid to its war of aggression in Ukraine, is also scoring successes in other parts of the world.
Africa Right now it’s in the background compared to other emergencies, however it remains a continent rich in strategic resources that we will need for the future, sustainable and otherwise: minerals, metals, agricultural raw materials. And also a growing continentnot just demographic as we tend to think: it is a expanding market. What does Putin, or his mercenary armed wing, offer that we fail to offer to Africans?
The last few months and years have seen a succession of humiliating defeats for France, whose armed forces have been expelled from several African countries, often following military coups. In Italy someone can enjoy the backwardness of cousins transalpines who have “elbowed” with arrogance to reduce our influence (see Libya). But France’s troubles are part of a larger problem. Lately the same fate as the French befell the Americans.
The last episode happened in Niger where US troops have had to withdraw and the Russians are expected to take their place. Also in this case the reversal of alliances is the consequence of a military coup. The president of Niger democratically elected is under house arrest since last July. The military coup leaders who ousted and deposed him now they collaborate with the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group. Previously, Mali, Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic had slipped into Moscow’s sphere of military influence.
Individually taken Niger is not of great strategic importance. It owns uranium, goldand other minerals, but not in quantity such as to make it indispensable. Even the French nuclear industry, which was a loyal customer, is able to replace him with other suppliers if necessary. As for the Americans, their first reflex is to say: «Let Putin keep Niger». Negligible loss, at first sight.
If instead this expulsion of the US military is included in the big picture, maybe there’s some reason to worry. The Economist recalls that the Americans and Europeans in recent years have not managed to block the “contagion of military coups” that have followed one another from Guinea on the western coast of the continent to Sudan in the east. The US military base in Niger, underlines The Economist«offered intelligence to all the forces involved in the war against the jihadist militias linked to ISIS and Al Qaeda».
Who seems convinced that America needs to worry about of this African debacle, is Walter Russell Mead, historian and authoritative geopolitical analyst. Here I take up some elements of an analysis of him that appeared in the Wall Street Journal.
«From Libya to South Africa – writes Russell Mead – Putin exploits American and Western mistakes to acquire profitable mineral resourceshinder the security strategies of the West, and strengthen the Kremlin’s ability to evade our sanctions. Not since the British East India Company built an empire on the ruins of the Mughal dynasty in India has a semi-private company of mercenaries raised so as successful as the Wagner Group in Africa. Its leaders capitalize on the widespread hatred towards France and the inability of weak pro-Western governments to provide solutions in the fields of security, well-being and education. The mercenaries have accumulated wealth with gold, diamonds and other minerals, for themselves and their bosses in the Kremlin. At the same time they inflicted one humiliation after another for the West”.
I follow this line of analysis to enumerate the benefits that Putin derives from this African advance. In addition to immediate economic profit, Africa offers a platform for various operations recycling of dirty money, e circumvention of sanctions Westerners. Finally there is the geopolitical advantage for the Russians to appear as friends and protectors of the global South, at a time when the West is very unpopular in that part of the world. It’s time to remember that South Africa’s slide into the Sino-Russian orbitand his recent initiative at the international tribunal in The Hague to accuse Israel of genocide.
Russell Meade focuses on American difficulties. It evokes problems that I also addressed in the book African hope. In summary, Washington’s Africa policy has been hijacked by some lobbies with a radical agenda: the most extreme environmentalists, the LGBTQ community. America presents itself in Africa as a superpower that claims to give lessons on human rightson gays and transgenders, and would like to impose a very expensive lightning transition to green energy with a forced and hasty abandonment of traditional sources. An “ethical” foreign policy, as hoped for by the left wing of Biden’s party, has so far only alienated African sympathies and has not stopped the advance of military regimes.
L’Europe it’s a slightly different case because its African politics And less ideological than that of the United States. Even in Europe, however, there is one NGO lobby which often influenced choices, with a “humanitarian extremism” which serves to give oneself a good conscience but gives poor results on the ground. Having a clear conscience and being expelled by one African government after another is of little use.
A sector where the Wagner Group gives solutions and we don’t, it’s that of safety. There fight against jihadist militiasagainst ethnic separatism, against crime, are priorities for economic take-off.
Europe still does not present itself as a credible alternative to Russia in the military field. On the investment side he has to deal with the Chinese, Indian, Saudi, Emirati and Turkish competition. Europe is also shy in countering other people’s propaganda and in exposing the broken promises of others. In terms of economic aid, for example, Putin is unparalleled in his greed. Europeans should invest in information warfare: Too many Africans ignore the true figures of their relations with the rest of the world.
