Done
Yesterday’s post-results Confcall focused mainly on the potential agreement with 2i Rete Gas. Main messages:
1) management explained that the strategic logic of the operation includes strengthening Italgas in the sector, sharing the best digitalisation capabilities and obtaining synergies;
2) 2i Rete Gas represents a unique opportunity to consolidate the sector and an agreement will have no impact on other growth opportunities such as Greece (where Italgas has a consolidated plan) or the Water sector (which remains an important opportunity that can create synergies);
3) the company’s objective is to maintain the same credit rating, therefore the most efficient combination possible between the various forms of financing will be found. Italgas currently has no hybrids in circulation. In terms of debt/RAB the target level for Fitch is 63%, but some flexibility is expected up to approx. 65-66%, and Italgas starts from 64% in 2023. In terms of FFO/net debt the threshold is 10% and Italgas starts from around 15%;
4) there will be no change in dividend policy following an agreement;
5) after the agreement Italgas will submit it to the necessary approval in terms of golden power and Italian antitrust.
As regards the results, Italgas explained that the new sector resolution has raised the 2024 tariff deflator to 5.3% (from the previous 3.8%), a change that will have a positive impact on the FY24 numbers estimated at Eu12-15mn.
Effect
We essentially confirm our estimates for 2024-2025, with the impact of a higher deflator more than offset by the inclusion of…
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SEE THE ITALGAS ANALYSIS
