The political office of Hamas has announced that it has accepted the ceasefire proposal of Egypt and Qatar. However, Israel would not accept it as it was a “softened” draft by Egypt, whereby there would be a gradual release of hostages, from 20 to 33, in exchange for a temporary ceasefire and the release of some Palestinian prisoners. What CNN sources call “the restoration of sustainable calm” would then follow, during which the remaining hostages would be exchanged for other Palestinian prisoners.
At the time of writing, the information is fragmented and not fully confirmed. The news comes a few hours after the Israeli order to evacuate Rafah, the southern city of the Gaza Strip which has welcomed over one and a half million displaced people since the start of the military offensive, or more than half of the entire population of the occupied Palestinian territory . More than 100 thousand people were told – with leaflets falling from the sky and radio and social media communications – to evacuate the eastern part of Rafah, indicating the coastal town of Al-Mawasi as a “humanitarian zone”. And while fear mounts among the displaced – since the beginning of the war on Hamas many of the so-called “safe areas” indicated by Israel have not been spared from bombing – https://twitter.com/UNRWA/status/1787375629119168663?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1787375629119168663%7Ctwgr%5Ea6fe0897803b521746e48b55ba73be300cb093ff%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2024%2F5%2F6%2Fisraeli-forces-call-on-palestinians-in-gazas-eastern-rafah-to-evacuate that other human rights organizations have feared “a nightmare scenario” for Palestinian civilians. In a collapsed humanitarian situation, almost 35 thousand people, two thirds of them women and children, have been killed by the Israeli army in these seven months of military offensive.
The invasion of Rafah was expected for some timeannounced by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government as “indispensable” to eradicate the Hamas government from the Gaza Strip. The Israeli prime minister had also announced that the army would continue its operations “with or without an agreement”, but at the moment it is not known whether it will continue with the planned operation. On a diplomatic level, the invasion of Rafah would put a severe strain on the relations with the United Stateswho had asked Israel for reassurances on the protection of civilians and who for weeks have been affected by one of the largest public opinion movements of the last fifty years, with the occupation of universities by students who ask to stop “financing the genocide”.
Netanyahu between external and internal pressure?
For a week now, Israel had informed the Biden administration of plans to evacuate Palestinian civilians from Rafah. An information which, however, would not have convinced the allies about the humanitarian sustainability of the operation in Rafah, believed to be the last stronghold of Hamas. “In the absence of such a plan [che salvaguardi le vite dei civili, ndr], we cannot support a military operation in Rafah because the damage it would cause would be beyond unacceptable,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last Friday at the Sedona Forum. For months, US President Joe Biden has been warning his ally about the “mistake” of an operation in Rafah, which would have catastrophic humanitarian consequences for Palestinian civilians and which could lead to changes in the foreign policy that has so far supported Israel, whose most recent military aid was approved two weeks ago and consists of 17 billion dollars in weapons. And while it is difficult to imagine that a military operation in the southern city of the Strip – whose population has increased by over 500% due to the displacement – could take place without civilian casualties, Israel’s internal political stability also seems to depend on its fate. Prime Minister Netanyahu has come under intense pressure from his far-right government. First of all by the Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, an exponent of Israeli messianic radicalism, to ensure that the army enters Rafah as soon as possible. This was echoed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who supports a “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians from Gaza and said that a ceasefire agreement would be “a humiliating defeat” and that Netanyahu’s failure to fight Hamas would deprive his government of the right to exist. On more moderate positions, Benny Gantz, the prime minister’s rival but participant in the national unity government, maintains that the release of the hostages is a priority over the Rafah assault.
A step forward?
The fate of Rafah therefore hangs in the balance on the success of the negotiations for an agreement, which Hamas would have accepted and Israel rejected. Last Sunday the Hamas delegation left the Egyptian capital after Israel’s refusal to accept an agreement that would free all the hostages in exchange for an end to hostilities. Mediation by Egypt and Qatar then led to a draft that was reportedly accepted by Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. For months, the two sides have been at opposite ends of the spectrum conditio sine qua non: while the Palestinian group called for the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Strip and an end to the war, Netanyahu has always maintained that it would continue even if an agreement on the hostages was found. For Tel Aviv, in fact, no agreement that provides for the maintenance of Hamas in power can be considered acceptable. The head of the CIA William Burns was present in Doha to meet the Qatari Prime Minister and insist that the parties continue to negotiate. According to the Israeli army, there are around 130 hostages still in the hands of Palestinian militiamen. Of these, the Israeli army claims that 35 are dead.
Israel against Al Jazeera?
The Israeli government voted unanimously to close the local newsroom of Al-Jazeera, the Qatari broadcaster that reports events from Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories. The decision – which came two days after the International Day for Freedom of the Press – was https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1787117586431299981?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1787117586431299981%7Ctwgr%5E8479e0341fdd87c73714f8fcb13d9e0b1bf15b5b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.euronews.com%2F2024%2F05%2F05%2Fisrael-to-shut-down-al-jazeera-offices-after-rising-tensions by Al Jazeera itself “a criminal act that violates human rights and the fundamental right to information”. As reported by the Israeli Ministry of Communications, Al Jazeera equipment in its Jerusalem offices was confiscated, and “cable and satellite broadcasts were blocked, as was access to the website.” At the moment, it is not clear whether the decision will be temporary and whether it will concern all offices or only those operating in Israel and East Jerusalem. The one between the Israeli government and Al Jazeera is a conflict that has been going on for some time and which has intensified since last October 7: the broadcaster is accused of supporting Hamas, while its editorial staff exposes the crimes committed by the Israeli army since the beginning of the offensive against the Gaza Strip, where it has remained among the few media who are still reporting what has been happening for seven months now. Last December, 22 family members of Moamen Al Sharafi, an Al Jazeera correspondent in Gaza, were killed in an Israeli raid.
The comment
From Mattia SerraISPI MENA Centre
“Two days were enough to radically change the scenario. If last Saturday reaching the truce seemed to many to be a matter of hours, the evacuations ordered recently by the Israeli army effectively mark the beginning of the offensive in Rafah. It is not the first time that the media narrative of the negotiations seems to diverge radically from reality. As had already happened other times in recent months, the real game was played on that last mile: the request for a permanent ceasefire, raised by Hamas but predictably rejected by the Israeli government. The scenarios unfolding today are terrible and so far international complaints seem to have been of little use.”
