Resignation, commissioner, early elections, return to the saddle? What happens in Liguria after the Toti earthquake?
It’s too early to understand, perhaps, as the outcry mounts over the corruption charges leveled against the centre-right governor under arrest by the La Spezia prosecutor’s office. The center-right yesterday shielded itself behind an official position: guaranteeism to the bitter end. From Salvini to Tajani up to Maurizio Lupi, leader of Noi Moderati, the group of which Toti is part, everyone shielded the president in the eye of the storm: one is innocent up to the third degree of judgement.
Toti arrested, preliminary interrogation on Friday. Salvini: «For him, resigning would be a surrender»
The moves of the majority
But politics began to move. And everyone is already wondering if it will really be possible for Toti to administer a Region from house arrest, assuming that the precautionary measure remains and is not revoked. Meanwhile, the governor has been replaced by his deputy, Alessandro Piana, a true Northern League member who now, as required by law, is at the helm of the Region. But the regency, the law always says, must be temporary. “We are close to our president Toti, certain that he has always acted in the exclusive interest of Liguria. We hope that clarity will be clarified as soon as possible and that the president can thus demonstrate his complete non-involvement in the disputed facts”, commented yesterday Piana, now officially Toti’s “pro tempore replacement”.
The Meloni line
In the centre-right, they are taking their time, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has not yet expressed herself but has dictated the official line to the party: guaranteeism, let’s not pursue the accusations of the prosecutors. But other reasoning takes shape in the fireplaces of Fratelli d’Italia. First of all, the belief that Toti will not resign spontaneously. This is what leaked yesterday from circles very close to the governor and former journalist: no step backwards. If there is, moral suasion will have to come into play and it is likely that the Melonian party will make the first move. If only to avoid, while waiting for the judiciary to do its job, dragging out a controversy that could cripple the centre-right’s consensus until the European elections in June.
Which roads are passable? Here we need to return to the law. If Toti does not intend to resign as it seems, it could be his own majority, with the main shareholder FdI, that pushes him to step back. As? For example by supporting a motion of no confidence presented by the centre-left in the Region. The simul stabunt simul cadent clause would thus be triggered: the entire Regional Council would decline and we would go back to the polls. But it is a remote hypothesis at the moment: Meloni wants to avoid such an abrupt solution and give the opposition a victory in view of the EU vote. How very difficult the other option seems on paper: the dissolution of a regional council by the President of the Republic, foreseen only in very serious cases, for example due to mafia infiltration.
The voting window
The increasingly probable outcome of this earthquake in Liguria is therefore the early vote once Toti, if the majority enters into pressure, decides to step back. The natural mandate expires in 2025, there was even talk of postponing the vote to June 2026. If we went to the polls immediately, the first window would open for next autumn, already in September.
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