Attacks, explosions and sabotage. We must expect a phase of great instability, warn European intelligence agencies. The 007s of at least three European countries have communicated to their respective governments that Russia is preparing “violent acts of sabotage throughout the continent”, without worrying about possible civilian victims. The Financial Times (FT) reports this in its online edition, citing intelligence service officials. According to the sources, “Russia has already begun to more actively prepare bomb attacks and arson attacks in secret to damage infrastructure on European territory, directly and indirectly, apparently without worrying about causing civilian casualties,” the newspaper writes.
The head of Germany’s domestic intelligence says the risks have increased significantly
While Kremlin operatives have a long history of such operations, and have launched sporadic attacks in Europe in recent years, “evidence of a more aggressive and concerted effort is mounting,” according to assessments from three European countries shared with the Financial Times. The newspaper quotes the head of German internal intelligence, Thomas Haldenwangwho last month – in a security conference – said that the risk of acts of sabotage controlled by the State has “increased significantly”. Russia now appears comfortable carrying out operations on European soil with ‘high potential for damage’he added.
Sabotage already underway: here’s where, when and what actions we’re talking about
There are several recent incidents that can be traced back to the same criminal sabotage attempt. There is the arrest of two Russian-German citizens in Bayreuth, Bavaria, on charges of plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia. At the end of April, he recalls the Ft, Two men have been charged in the UK with setting fire to a warehouse containing aid for Ukraine. The English prosecutor accuses them of having acted on behalf of the Russian government. In the meantime, the newspaper continues, i Swedish security services investigate a series of recent ones railway derailments and they suspect that these may be state-backed acts of sabotage.
Sabotage war between Russia and Ukraine, strange fires in Mariupol and attacks in Belarus
Infrastructures in the crosshairs: special monitored railways
Russia also attempted to destroy the signaling systems of the Czech railways, the country’s transport minister told the FT last month. According to the Estonian Internal Security Service, Russian intelligence officers attacked the Interior Minister’s cars and those of some journalists in February. The French Ministry of Defense also warned this year about possible sabotage actions by Russia against military sites.
“The obvious conclusion is that there has been a real increase in Russian activity,” said Keir Giles, a senior adviser at the Chatham House think tank. A senior European government official said that information of “clear and convincing Russian malice,” coordinated and on a large scale, was shared through NATO security services: the time has come to “increase awareness and attention” on the threat of Russian violence on European soilhe added.
Last Thursday, NATO issued a statement saying that allied countries are “deeply concerned” by Russia’s recent “malign activities”, of a hybrid nature, in the wake of recent cases which have led to the investigation and indictment of more individuals in Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic.
Diplomats expelled
The increase in Russian intelligence aggressiveness also reflects the country’s desire to reassert itself after the serious setback suffered by the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In the weeks following Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 600 Russian intelligence agents operating in Europe under diplomatic cover have been expelledseverely damaging the Kremlin’s spy network across the continent.
In a recent report, analysts from the UK’s Royal United Services Institute highlighted Russia’s efforts to rebuild its presence in Europe, often using proxies. These include members of the Russian diaspora and organized crime groups with which the Kremlin has long-standing ties.
A fundamental strategic change also occurred, with the so-called “Special influence committees” who coordinate country-by-country intelligence operations for the Kremlin, bringing together what were previously fragmented efforts of the country’s security services and other Kremlin actors.
Putin, sabotage from within or attacks from the 007 in Kiev? The mysterious explosions in Russia shake the Kremlin
Unexplained explosions in weapons depots
Doubts have been raised, for example, about a so far unexplained explosion at a BAE Systems munitions factory in Wales that supplies projectiles used by Ukraine.
In October 2014 it was destroyed a Czech arms depot where weapons for Kiev were stored; Russian military intelligence agents were later found to have planted explosives at the site.
Friday it exploded a huge fire in a Berlin factory owned by the Diehl arms company, which also supplies Ukraine. More than 160 specialist firefighters were called to tackle the blaze, while residents across a large area of the western part of the capital were told to keep their windows closed due to possible toxic fumes.
«As always with Russia, it is wise not to look for a single explanation of why they are doing something. There’s always a combination of things going on,” Giles said. «The attacks we have seen so far obviously serve to create unrest, but they can also be used for disinformation. And then there is what Russia learns from these attacks, if it wants to truly immobilize Europe… They are exercises.”
Pro-Russian politicians
Last, but not least, is the case of Moscow’s influences and politicians hired specifically to interfere in the next European elections.
The scandal erupted when the Czech government sanctioned a news site called Voice of Europe, which Prague said was part of a pro-Russian influence operation.
Great suspicions have focused on a deputy of the far-right Alternative for Germany party (ID group): Maximilian Krah. He was questioned by the FBI because of his relations with the Kremlin. Furthermore, his assistant was arrested on charges of being a Chinese spy. Krah will not be investigated in the case of spying on his assistant. However, German authorities suspect that he is bribed by Moscow.
Finally, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said that the Belgian secret services have confirmed “the existence of a pro-Russian interference network with activities in several European countries” which is “subject to judicial proceedings” in the country. The Belgian Prime Minister spoke about Brussels MEPs who received money in exchange for disseminating Russian propaganda content. It is unclear how many MPs are involved; Czech media, citing intelligence officials, speak of politicians from Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Hungary.
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