The rains did not bring the expected benefits in several areas of the south and this is interpreted by the markets as a bullish factor. Corn is also moving again
Durum wheat, eyes focused on the international situation
Italy
Durum wheat returns to be quoted in Bologna, where prices are confirmed, like in Milan, in line with the last week. We look at the local climate evolution and the news arriving from the EU and global market, with a potentially bullish impact if, as it seems, in areas of southern Italy the latest rains have not brought the expected benefit. Also for this campaign, covering the needs of the hard milling sector will require imports of over 2 million per tonne at global prices. Product arrivals at ports consolidate prices in the presence of limited local supply. In the north, the fungal disease (fusarium) alert remains for the next few weeks. The central “Fino” delivered north is confirmed at €345/t, with the equivalent delivered south around €360/t; merchant ships at a discount of €15-40/t in the south and €25-75/t in the centre-north.
Europe 
In the presence of adequate coverage of the milling sector until next June and with residual availability of “any-origin” products to satisfy immediate requests, the markets are looking to the new harvest, which is varied in terms of the state of the crops. There are problems in France (excess humidity), while in Greece (drought cases) and Spain there is (to date) cautious optimism. The temperatures of the next two-three weeks will be decisive in confirming good product characteristics. The latest purchase auctions in North Africa support the price forecasts for June-August which, on the ready FOB Mediterranean, are worth €335/t for the old 2023 harvest (France).
World
Sowing is proceeding in the plains of the USA and Canada, where late rains and snowfalls have partly reduced the water shortage in the “top soil”. Market revitalized after the latest auctions in North Africa (mainly Mexican origin), with attention on the sales auctions of 0.1 million/t from Turkey, which returns to offering after the stop last March. A scenario that remains linked to the evolution of harvests in Europe and North America, with the confirmation of greater imports from Algeria and Morocco. Sellers remain cautious in offering, while demand opens up to all origins, with Mexico and the US southwest the first non-EU origins to arrive on the 2024/25 market. Algeria confirmed the purchase of 0.2 million/t of durum wheat at prices between 395 and 410 dollars/ton delivered to the port of destination in June.
Soft wheat, adequate supply cools price lists
Italy
The recent rains and seasonal average temperatures have consolidated the vegetative state, but the weather in May will be crucial for the quality. On the ready side, the supply of wheat is present, as are the trades, which express the desire of the demand to maintain hedges in the short term while waiting for more precise estimates on the market for June-December. Slight recovery for grains from “class 3” (bread making grains) to fodder, with confirmation of prices for higher and stronger ones. Alternative European and foreign origins are also stable. The “Bologna 14 protein type” wheat prices at €335/t arrival, with the “higher” ones (class 2) at €270-275/t and the “mixed” bread-making products (class 3) above €225/t; items 4 and 5 are repositioned close to €210-215/t. Generic community grains reach €215/t, strong grains at €330/t and Canadian spring grains at €360/t.
Europe
A partial reduction of climatic and geopolitical risks, the main cause of the recent increases both on the community physical market and on the Paris futures market, have led to falling prices, even if the cultivation progress of the new harvest and the willingness of European holders to begin reducing warehouse stocks after a year of imports that came close to 8 million/t, which leads us to estimate carryover stocks to July 2024 at over 20 million/t. Concerns remain in support for the vegetative conditions of the fields in France, where 37% of the areas are in difficulty. Local and port demand not very pressing in the short week of May 1st. On Euronext, May prices remained at €204/t (minus 5), with September (new harvest) at €228/t (minus 2). Large premium on ready to highlight uncertainty over volumes and quality; the “bread making” delivered to the port of Rouen at €198/t.
World 
There are tentative signs of improvement in the state of crops in Russia (2024 harvest forecast at 90 million/t) and in the USA. This is reflected in a partial decline in prices, which still remain higher than last week. Russia’s export rate continues at 1 million per week and it is already estimated that for this campaign volumes will be released for an increase of 15% compared to 2023/24. The percentage prospects for Ukraine are similar. The climate improvement in India leads to estimates of record production in 2024, at 112 million/t, which reassures the Asian markets. Prices: Argentine at $253/t, Australian Soft White at $254/t, DNS at $305/t, Russian milling at $214/t.
Corn reverses the trend and rises again
Italy
At the post-holiday reopenings, both Milan and Bologna confirm a bullish trend by ratifying, in line with the European and foreign replacements available on the spot, increases of €3-4/t. The supply situation changes for geopolitical reasons and the tightening of the Ukrainian market, even if overall in the short term availability remains adequate. Cross support between corn and straw fodder cereals continues; looking forward to a new harvest, the climatic conditions are good. The corn “with characteristics” arriving north is worth €220-223/t, with the generic at a discount of €4-5/t; EU and foreign prices are recovering, with prices in line with the national “with characteristics” in Bologna and at a premium to the national in Milan.
Europe 
If the physical spot market is volatile given the geopolitical situation and the strengthening of prices from the Black Sea, on the “term” the situation is different and gives ground compared to the high reached on Euronex Paris on 26 April. The global prospects and also those of the new European harvest are changing (for the better), with the confirmation of the increase in the areas sown in France. Despite the strengthening of international prices, Ukrainian competition limits community exports, calming the markets for both the ready and the 2024/25 harvest. On Euronext Paris the June position is worth €199/t (minus 8), with the new harvest – November at €204/t (minus 4); corn with characteristics delivered ex-port of Bordeaux prices ready at €203/t (minus 8).
World
Heavy rains slow down sowing in the “midwest” of the USA, but optimize water resources in the soil. In Brazil there is a reduction in trade, as the second harvest (from July) is offered at a strong discount on today’s first harvest. In Argentina, threshing (at 25%) is slowed down by the rains and recent leafhopper attacks suggest a decrease in 2024 sowing in favor of soya. In Ukraine the market is not very active, but it sows more than 30% and well ahead of 2023. Quotations on last week’s values; in Ukraine around $185/t (plus 2) Fob. Fob prices: USA at $194/t, Ukrainian at $185/t, Argentine at $201/t and Brazilian at $208/t.
Flat calm for barley, soybeans recovering
Italy
Forage cereals: the week brings no significant news other than the uncertainties regarding the quality of the barley (recent rains). On the mercurials, prices remain unchanged, with the exception of wheat. The “any origin” offer is always adequate. Heavy barley is confirmed to arrive at €202-212/t, with soft barley at €220/t and sorghum at €205/t. Oilseeds: the price differential of €10/t between national soybeans (at a premium) and foreign soybeans is maintained. In Bologna there was a slight upward adjustment to align the prices with Milan. Local soybeans start at €470-473/t, foreign arrivals are €468-470/t.
Europe
Forage cereals: the vegetative conditions of barley and wheat are worse than in 2023 and this consolidates the community markets, offsetting the bearish news from the rest of the world. The trend reversal (today downwards) of wheat affects the entire sector, even if barley maintains prices better thanks to exports. Oilseeds: rapeseed is only partly affected by the negative effects of the drop in the price of oil and, more generally, of vegetable oils. Community harvest estimates have recently been revised downwards for a campaign deficit of around 5 million/t. On Euronext the August position is €469/t, with the FOB Rouen at €455/t; the “oleic” sunflower yield S. Nazaire rising to €430/t (plus 5).
World
Forage cereals: very volatile week, with the main markets quoting the daily variations of the “weather market” in Russia and the USA, initially bullish and then returning to the starting values. 50% of US winter wheats are in good condition and improving, with Asian demand slowing down also due to the general context, with prospects of wide availability of straw cereals for livestock use also in 2024/25. Barley FOB Black Sea at $185/t, Australian at $241/t; Srw FOB Gulf wheat at $233/t and Ukrainian $188/t. Oilseeds: soybeans falling due to lower global demand and the forecast of (necessary) rain in the US midwest. In Brazil, sowing nearing completion and signs of a slowdown in trade calmed prices; in Argentina the harvest is at 25%, with over 75% of the fields in good condition. Fob prices: US soybeans at $443/t, Brazilian soybeans at $426/t and Argentine soybeans at $422; Canadian canola FOB at $487/t.
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