Inflation is increasing again in Switzerland and is doing so to a greater extent than expected: in April the growth in prices on an annual basis stood at 1.4%, compared to 1.0% in March, when it was reached its lowest level since 2021.
According to data published today by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), in the fourth month of the year the consumer price index stood at 107.4 points. The April increase exceeds expectations: the analysts interviewed by the AWP agency were in fact betting on values between +1.0% and +1.2%. On a monthly level, prices instead rose by 0.3% (also in this case more than forecasts, which were between +0.1% and +0.2%), while in March the percentage increase was equal to to zero.
According to FSO experts, the growth of the index compared to the previous month is attributable to various factors, including the increase in the prices of international flat-rate travel and air transport. Petrol and furniture have also become more expensive. On the other hand, rates in the hotel and para-hotel sector, as well as gas rates, are cheaper. Also of interest is the evolution of food products, which report a monthly +0.5% and +1.0% per year, as well as that of the housing and energy sectors (0.0% and +3.3% respectively). , which includes rent.
Still negative until March 2021, inflation rose significantly in Switzerland, reaching a peak of 3.5% in August 2022, before falling slightly again and closing 2022 with an (average) figure of 2. 8%, the highest in 30 years. In 2023 the highest point was observed in February (3.4%) and the average for the year was 2.1%. In 2024 the maximum was recorded in January, 1.3%.
The Swiss indicator in April is at lower levels than that of Germany (+2.2%, stable compared to March) and the Eurozone (+2.4%, also unchanged), but is higher than that of Italy ( 0.9%, down from 1.2%). To get the corresponding indication for the United States we will have to wait a few days: in March the increase was 3.5%.
Moving on to the details relating to Swiss inflation in April, compared to March the prices of indigenous products rose by 0.1%, while those of imported products increased by 1.1%. On an annual basis, the former recorded +2.0%, the latter -0.4%. The base of inflation – which in the definition of the FSO is the total increase without that concerning fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuels – shows a variation of +0.4% (month) and +1.2% (year) respectively ).
The FSO also calculates a harmonized consumer price index (HIPC), measured with the methodology used in the European Union, with the aim of comparing Swiss data with those of EU nations. Seen from this perspective, April presents an increase in prices of +0.5% (month) and +1.4% (year).
As is known, the effectiveness of the consumer price index in illustrating the cost of living perceived by consumers is often at the center of great discussions. This is particularly true in Switzerland because, for methodological reasons, the rate calculated by Neuchâtel officials does not include basic health insurance premiums, an expense item that is rapidly increasing in the budgets of Swiss families. Precisely in this regard, no later than yesterday in his speech for May 1st, the president of the Swiss Trade Union Union (USS) Pierre-Yves Maillard denounced “completely distorted” inflation data.
The increase established by the FSO has great importance in various areas: from salary negotiations to rent, through to the setting of maintenance in the context of divorces. The inclusion or not of sick home premiums therefore has a far from secondary effect on many citizens.
Inflation is also carefully monitored by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which pursues price stability as its objective, understood as an increase in prices between 0 and 2%. To slow down price growth, the institute increased the key rate five times between 2022 and 2023, which thus rose from -0.75% to +1.75%. Last March 21, noting that inflation had fallen below 2%, the entity led by Thomas Jordan proceeded to cut the cost of money, which fell to 1.50%. The BNS was the first major central bank to cut rates after the phase of price increases which occurred in particular in conjunction with the start of the war in Ukraine and the related sanctions against Russia.
