Piazza Affari on equality at the start of the session
- 07.40 am Europe expected to slightly decline. Burst of macro data
European stock markets rise fractionally at the start of the session. The Dax advances by 0.17%, the Cac40 by 0.10%, the Ftse100 by 0.27% and the Ftse Mib by 0.12% to 34,336 points. At a geopolitical level there is a certain tranquility with positive repercussions on the prices of raw materials: WTI oil close to the threshold of 80 dollars a barrel, freight index -1.3%, gas futures on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange far from 30 euros. Government bond yields are no longer rising: that of the 10-year BTP has fallen to 3.8%, the spread with the Bund is trading at 133.4 basis points.
Spain’s GDP beats expectations
At a macroeconomic level, the day includes a rather rich menu. After France’s GDP was in line with expectations in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.2% quarter-on-quarter), that of Spain recorded a +0.7% quarter-on-quarter at a preliminary level (+2.4% year-on-year on year), above consensus expectations at +0.4%. The euro recovers ground against the dollar, is worth 1.070 and marks a +0.19%.
In Milan, Fineco, Generali, STM and Lottomatica did well, Tim and Stellantis went down
On the Milanese stock exchange, Tim lost 0.40% to 0.2252 euros. The Milan court has annulled the preventive seizure order of the amount of 249 million euros imposed on the telecommunications giant as part of an investigation into alleged fraud in paid services, while Vivendi continues its legal action against the group led by Pietro Labriola on the sale of the network to KKR (the hearing is set for May 21) and hoped that 2025 could be the decisive year to distance itself from the former incumbent without having to sell off the share. Waiting for the hearing.
Some purchases on Generali (+0.22% to 22.98 euros) which is preparing to retain its retail investors also with the creation of a shareholders’ club. The project, according to what is known to MF-Milano Finanza, is being developed with the intention of offering the company’s members services and products at favorable conditions. Such as insurance coverage to be offered to holders of Generali shares who are not yet customers of the company, but also wine or other products, given that the group includes Tenute del Leone Alato (formerly Genagricola), a leading company in Italy in the agricultural sector .
In managed savings, FinecoBank rose by 1.41% to 14.40 euros, Banca Mediolanum by 0.79% to 10.17 euros and Banca Generali (+0.11% to 36.64 euros) of which Barclays raised the target price, respectively, at 14.3 euros, 12.8 euros, 38.9 euros. STM was also positive (+0.34% to 38.25 euros). As for Prysmian (-0.12% to 51.1 euros), Valerio Battista, who left the position of CEO after the shareholders’ meeting, will receive a severance pay equal to 24 months of the fixed annual remuneration equal to 2.2 million euros, in addition to a consideration of 1.32 million, with reference to the non-competition agreement, for the next three years. It published the accounts for the first quarter of 2024 before the opening of the Stellantis stock exchanges, down 1.36% to 22.91 euros: deliveries decreased by 10% to 1.335 million units and turnover by 12% to 41.7 billion.
Lottomatica, which improved its 2024 guidance thanks to the contribution of SKS365, but profit fell by 24% in the first quarter of 2024, rose by 1.80% to 10.75 euros.
There is also anticipation for the accounts of Seri Industrial (-1.77% to 4.44 euros). The latter has put Industria Italiana Bus in its sights for a possible acquisition.
While Edison (stable at 1.525 per savings share, the only one listed) has not ruled out making further acquisitions or exiting non-core activities in the future, as can be read in the responses provided by management to shareholders on the occasion of the special shareholders’ meeting of savings from April 9th. Speaking of shareholder meetings, today, 30 April, those of Amplifon, Hera, Nexi and Tenaris are meeting.
07.40 am Europe expected to slightly decline. Burst of macro data
European stock markets expected to contract slightly at the start of the session. the future on the Eurostoxx50 marks -0.12%. US futures also fell slightly (-0.19% on the Dow Jones and -0.22% on the S&P500). The March PCE report showed headline and core inflation rates above economists’ estimates. This, according to Ebury experts, gives further weight to the argument that inflationary pressures remain too high for the FOMC to start cutting rates, with futures markets now predicting no real possibility of a cut until at least fall. “We expect this repricing of rate expectations to be reflected in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s communications this week, which is likely to highlight that the Fed is not done fighting inflation yet. He will also likely be asked whether markets can expect further upside if inflationary pressures persist. While we do not believe that he will go so far as to suggest that further hikes are on the cards, we also do not believe that he will rule out further tightening, which could guarantee a further rise in the dollar”, explain the Ebury experts as they await the decision on Wednesday at 8pm of the Fed on rates. Futures markets put the chances of a cut at 3%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
France’s GDP in line with expectations, focus on that of Spain, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone
Meanwhile, the macro agenda is full of data. We start with the GDP for the first quarter of 2024 of France already published: +0.2% quarter on quarter (previous: unchanged quarter on quarter; consensus: +0.2% quarter on quarter) and consumption expenditure in March: +0.4% month over month (previous: unchanged month over month). Germany’s March import prices (previous: -4.9% yoy) and March retail sales (previous: -1.9% yoy, -2.7% yoy) are expected at 8am ; consensus: +1.5% month on month) and then moved on at 9 to Spain’s preliminary first quarter GDP (previous: +0.6% quarter on quarter; consensus: +0.4% quarter on quarter). At 09:55, however, the unemployment rate for April in Germany will be published (previous: 5.9%; consensus: 5.9%) and at 10:00 the GDP for the preliminary first quarter (previous: -0.3% quarter quarter-on-quarter, -0.2% year-on-year; consensus: unchanged quarter-on-quarter, -0.2% year-on-year) and that of Italy (previous: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter, +0.6% year-over-year; consensus: +0.2% quarter-over-quarter, +0.3% year-over-year).
Eurozone inflation is also on the macro agenda, important from an ECB perspective
Then at 11am the preliminary first quarter GDP of the Eurozone (previous: -0.1% quarter on quarter, +0.1% year on year; consensus: +0.2% quarter on quarter, +0.2% year y-o-y) and preliminary April inflation (previous: +2.4% y-o-y; consensus: +2.4% y-o-y), including core inflation (previous: +2.9% y-o-y). At the same time, Italy’s preliminary April inflation (previous: unchanged month on month, +1.2% year on year). Finally, the weekly Redbook index will arrive from the United States at 2.55pm (previous: +5.3%), at 3pm the Case Shiller index in February (previous: +6.6% year-on-year), at 3pm: The Napm index in April was 45 (previous: 41.4 points) and the consumer confidence index in April was at 4pm (previous: 104.7 points; consensus: 104 points).
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Sales on oil and gold
While waiting for this burst of macro data and at 12pm for the speech by Claudia Buch, president of the ECB’s Banking Supervision Council, the euro rises by 0.18% to 1.070 dollars. While oil prices fall (WTI -0.28% to 82.40 dollars a barrel and Brent -0.25% to 86.98 dollars a barrel) after the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo have helped quell market fears of an expanded conflict in the Middle East, while concerns over the outlook for US interest rates continue to weigh on the market. “Rates kept at high levels for a longer period could trigger a further rise in the US dollar, putting the outlook on oil demand at risk,” says Yeap Jun Rong, strategist at IG, recalling the continuous attacks by Yemen’s Houthis to maritime traffic south of the main trade route of the Suez Canal. The Houthis targeted two US destroyers and the Cyclades vessel in the Red Sea, as well as the MSC Orion in the Indian Ocean.
The price of gold also fell 0.93% to $2,335 an ounce, remaining well below its recent peak as fears grow of US interest rates being higher for longer ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. The decline in demand for safe haven assets is also having an impact in light of the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas. However, despite the recent decline, the price of the precious metal is still up more than 4% in April, extending the stellar gains seen in March.
In Milan, watch out for Tim, Generali, Prysmian, Stellantis, Fineco, Banca Mediolanum, Banca Generali, Lottomatica, Edison and Seri Industrial
On the Milanese price list, pay attention to Tim not only because the Milan court annulled the preventive seizure order of the amount of 249 million euros imposed on the TLC giant as part of an investigation into alleged fraud in paid services, but because Vivendi continues its legal action against the group led by Pietro Labriola over the sale of the network to KKR (the hearing is set for May 21) and hopes that 2025 will be the decisive year to distance itself from the former incumbent without having to sell out the quote. Waiting for the hearing.
Generali should also be monitored because it is preparing to retain its retail investors also with the creation of a shareholders’ club. The project, according to what is known to MF-Milano Finanza, is being developed with the intention of offering the company’s members services and products at favorable conditions. Such as insurance coverage to be offered to holders of Generali shares who are not yet customers of the company, but also wine or other products, given that the group includes Tenute del Leone Alato (formerly Genagricola), a leading company in Italy in the agricultural sector .
In managed savings, keep an eye on FinecoBank, Banca Mediolanum and Banca Generali, of which Barclays has raised the target price to 14.3 euros, 12.8 euros and 38.9 euros respectively. As for Prysmian, Valerio Battista, who left the role of CEO after the shareholders’ meeting, will receive an end-of-office indemnity equal to 24 months of the fixed annual remuneration of 2.2 million euros, in addition to a compensation of 1.32 million, with reference to the non-competition agreement, for the next three years. He published the accounts for the first quarter of 2024 before the opening of the Stellantis stock exchanges: deliveries decreased by 10% to 1.335 million units and turnover by 12% to 41.7 billion.
There is also anticipation for the first quarter 2024 accounts of Lottomatica and Seri Industrial. The latter has put Industria Italiana Bus in its sights for a possible acquisition.
While Edison has not ruled out making further acquisitions or exiting non-core activities in the future, as can be read in the responses provided by management to shareholders on the occasion of the special meeting of savings shareholders on April 9th. Speaking of shareholder meetings, today, 30 April, those of Amplifon, Hera, Nexi and Tenaris are meeting. (All rights reserved)
